Aussie dollar continues lower

As spot forex traders we sometimes forget the futures market can often help with market sentiment towards a currency and the daily chart for 6A, which is the contract for the Aussie dollar is particularly revealing. For the 6A,  it has been a return to business as usual over the last couple of weeks, since the breakaway from the VPOC at 0.7320 once again confirming the heavily bearish sentiment for the AUD. The initial break was on the 24th August where the wide spread down candle also triggered the volatility indicator, and as expected the price action moved back within the spread of the candle; a cynical move designed to trigger stops. Since then the candle has duly been confirmed with a rapid move through the low volume node on the VPOC indicator at 0.6980 with the pair now trading lower once again at 0.6934 in the London session. With the weight of transacted volume now sitting overhead in the 0.7320 price area and...
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Forget the euro, look at the British pound!

In all the brouhaha about Greece and the euro it's easy to forget what else is going on in the forex market. Sometimes I feel Greece is taking up too much space in traders' heads at the expense of other markets and currencies. And for a perfect example of what I mean look no further than the continued strength in GBP which has seen some great trends in GBP/NZD & GBP/CAD & I'm still waiting for the GBP/JPY to turn lower, but only once we see a major reversal in risk sentiment. On both charts the NinjaTrader trend monitor has remained firmly bullish with only a minor transition on the GBP/CAD reflecting the recent pause in the longer term trend. However, moving to the NinjaTrader currency strength indicator to the left of the chart, here we can see that the British Pound, the yellow line, is now moving ever deeper into the oversold region on the daily timeframe, so this trend...
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The yen currency matrix in focus as equities fall

The overnight fall in the Nikkei 225 of 1.76% has resulted in an impressive two bar reversal (aka a shooting star) on the daily chart for the USD/JPY - so no surprise to see the pair move lower in this morning's trading session. What is perhaps more significant is this move in the JPY is not consistent across the JPY pairs we follow on our matrix, and in particular the EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY. The latter is a pair I am looking to short on a longer term basis, but patience is required not least because I want to see the JPY begin to move away from the bottom (oversold) on the currency strength indicator. This also highlights a key aspect of forex trading, namely individual currencies can stay overbought or oversold for much longer than we expect. Much, of course, will depend on risk sentiment, and in particular whether the current downwards trend in equities continues, and if so then we...
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Aussie dollar now in sharp focus ahead of Trade Balance

If you come along to our forex webinars you will always hear David & I explain the importance of the fundamental news & how easy it is to be ambushed by 'events'. But I must admit so far it's been absolutely relentless & it's only Wednesday! Coming up we have Aussie retail sales & Trade Balance - both very important numbers, and so far it's been a buy of the Aussie except against the euro - a trade we've been following. Of the two releases - the Trade Balance number has been negative since July last year, and whilst February's number was encouraging, coming in at -0.44b against a forecast of -0.85b, the subsequent releases have been dire. Tonight's headline number is -2.17b against a forecast of -1.32b, in fact a further deterioration, and with AUD/USD having moved strongly higher yesterday as a result of USD weakness. it's no surprise to see a doji on today's daily chart, which by coincidence is...
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EUR/NZD reverses recent trend for the New Zealand dollar

The EUR/NZD has delivered some excellent trading opportunities across all the timeframes this morning to the short side, following the recent heavily bearish sentiment towards the New Zealand dollar which has seen it weaken against all the major currencies. Indeed longer term the NZD is now looking increasingly oversold, so we may see this trend reflected on the slower timeframe charts in due course. This morning's move was signalled initially with a move below the volume point of control (VPOC) on the 30 minute chart ( the yellow line), a move that was duly supported with rising volume and confirming the bearish sentiment. In addition, the transition in the trend monitor indicator from blue to red also confirmed this reversal, coupled with a pivot high indicator prior to the move through the VPOC. Since then, momentum to the downside has increased with volumes also rising sharply and confirming the wide spread down candle as we approach a potential area of support...
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Bearish tone for GBP/USD continues in early trading

As the markets get under way in London this morning, and with a relatively thin day for fundamental news, the US dollar is once again advancing on the fast time frame charts and providing some excellent intraday scalping opportunities across the currency majors. Both the British pound and the euro have been selling off sharply against the US dollar, with the currency strength indicator on the 15 minute timeframe showing the US dollar, the red line rising firmly and moving towards the overbought region, with the euro (orange) and the pound (yellow) both moving strongly lower along with the Swiss franc (green). The chart alongside is of the GBP/USD in a slightly slower time frame (30m) and reflecting the current bearish sentiment at present for this pair, with the Trend Monitor at the bottom of the chart remaining firmly red, with the current volume rising, and confirming the current move lower. In addition, Cable is now breaking below the recent platform...
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Aussie dollar strengthens as RBA keep rates on hold

The main focus overnight was in Australia with the RBA deciding to hold the current cash rate at 2.25%, with no cut. This decision was against the backdrop of declining commodity prices and a slowdown in China with many expecting the rate to be cut to 2.00%. As a result the Aussie dollar strengthened on the news against many of the major currencies, with another nice move on the EUR/AUD on the 15 minute chart. The Quantum accumulation and distribution indicator initially defined the support and resistance region with the 1.4360 being the key level of support and a region that had been tested on several occasions prior to the news. The bearish sentiment was confirmed with the trend monitor to the bottom of the chart which continues to remain bearish in this timeframe with the move lower accompanied by high volume and confirming the short term bearish trend. To the left of the chart and the Ninjatrader currency strength indicator,...
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Forex currency strength indicator explained

Question Hi Anna, Firstly, I just wanted to say I've just finished "Forex For Beginners" and I thoroughly enjoyed the book; found if extremely helpful and useful. Opened my first forex account on Friday of last week. Made some mistakes at first, lacked the discipline to follow my strategy, I think I was a tad over keen to trade at first. I've just purchased "A Complete Guide to VPA" so I'll start on that tonight. I have a quick question though if you wouldn't mind answering. In Forex for Beginners, you use the Currency Strength Indicator to look for potential indicators of an upcoming reversal. And then from this you use the currency matrix and analysis to confirm the reversal. I was just wondering, if you could use the same strategy to indicate a continuing trend? If this is explained in the book I've just purchased I apologise, I just thought I'd ask. For example, if both the Aus and Usd are...
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