European data drives the forex market in early trading

European data drives the forex market in early trading

It was all about the euro in early trading with the currency strength indicator, the currency matrix and the currency array all in focus in the forex trading session. https://youtu.be/jeoO0esSLBc...
Read More

Is Swiss Franc ready to turn higher?

With year end on the horizon, now perhaps is a good time to see what the Swiss franc has been up in an effort to determine what the currency is likely to be doing in the run up to the 15th January 2015 anniversary when the SNB (Swiss National Bank) removed the floor of support for the currency, unleashing a wave of volatility on the markets not seen since the dark days of the financial crisis back in 2008. From a technical standpoint the Swiss Franc is now heavily oversold on the hourly and daily currency strength indicator, against most of its counterparts, with the exception of the where the picture is very different, with the pair firmly range bound albeit well below the 1.20 price point, which triggered the January volatility. With regard to the other CHF pairs, and in particular the USD/CHF the current move higher that started in mid October is now reaching an exhaustion point, as the pair...
Read More

Bearish sentiment continues for euro

Despite finding support at 1.0996 following last week's mauling eurodollar is struggling to hold onto the weak overnight gains. 15 min chart for the pair is particuarly revealing with a series of volatility candles triggered as the combination of the resistance at 1.1056 and the 100ma have been taken by traders as an excuse to sell. Other euro pairs also taking a tumble include the EUR/GBP and EUR/CAD, the former sitting neatly on the VPOC on the 15 min timeframe which sits at the 0.7180 region, and any move through here could see the pair test support at 0.7168. Any move lower for the EUR/GBP cross is also benefiting from a move higher in cable.    ...
Read More

Euro tumbles on Draghi comments

Mario Draghi's comments at the ECB conference regarding further stimulus has led to a dramatic fall in the euro across the board, and the eurodollar in particular. This weakness, however, was first signaled last week, and has been developing since the start of the trading week, and is a follow through from the two bar reversal posted on the daily chart. Today's price action on the eurodollar daily chart has resulted in a volatility candle being triggered given the extreme move, and if there is no follow through, then it should be surprise to see the price action simply retreat to within the spread of today's candle. In addition today's price move has seen the eurodollar move back through the volume point of control. ...
Read More

Aussie waits on RBA

Some really nice two way price action on the Aussie complex which started overnight on the release of Chinese data, namely GDP, the Industrial Production and the Fixed Asset Investment numbers. The hourly chart for the complex clearly shows volatility candles being triggered across the board (as denoted by the purple arrows), with the Aussie rising sharply before moving back inside the spread of the volatility candle. This momentum was also signaled on the currency strength indicator before the currency moved into a consolidation phase in the transition to the European and London sessions. There were further gains for the Aussie in the morning session, until bullish momemtum drained away which resulted in some great trades to the short side. These were particularly evident in the AUD/USD, GBP/AUD and AUD/NZD. The Aussie now faces another important item of fundamental news, specifically the RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes which may give traders some indication of whether the central bank is likely to cut...
Read More

Bears take hold of cable

Today's reversal in cable has once again taken the pair back to the VPOC (volume point of control) support which sits in the 1.5573 price region. This price area is where cable has been rotating since early July, and despite what appeared to be a decisive break away on Monday when cable touched a high of 1.5803, yesterday's down candle has had the effect of creating a classic two bar reversal. Therefore, no surprise to see the resulting fall in today's trading session where cable has fallen over 200 pips. Today's price action has not only taken cable below the VPOC for the first time since early August but also seen a break through the 100 ma, and with today's move supported with good volume the next stop for cable would appear to be 1.5424 on the daily chart. Moving to the hourly chart cable has found some good support at 1.5466, a price point first hit by a volatility candle earlier...
Read More

Forget the euro, look at the British pound!

In all the brouhaha about Greece and the euro it's easy to forget what else is going on in the forex market. Sometimes I feel Greece is taking up too much space in traders' heads at the expense of other markets and currencies. And for a perfect example of what I mean look no further than the continued strength in GBP which has seen some great trends in GBP/NZD & GBP/CAD & I'm still waiting for the GBP/JPY to turn lower, but only once we see a major reversal in risk sentiment. On both charts the NinjaTrader trend monitor has remained firmly bullish with only a minor transition on the GBP/CAD reflecting the recent pause in the longer term trend. However, moving to the NinjaTrader currency strength indicator to the left of the chart, here we can see that the British Pound, the yellow line, is now moving ever deeper into the oversold region on the daily timeframe, so this trend...
Read More

Central banks and GBP centre stage on currency matrix

We have four central banks on today's trading horizon, BOJ, RBA, BOE & later this evening we have interest rate decision, policy statement and a press conference from the RBNZ. I really must come up with a collective noun for the CB's! In between we have the Manufacturing Number for the UK where forecast is for 0.1% against a previous of 0.4%. This release can be very difficult to judge as there has been no clear trend since 2009 when the number was consistently awful. On the GBP matrix we have seen some strong buying of GBP against USD, which is not surprising given the alleged Obama comments at the G7. However, GBP buying actually started last week after NFP. It was the deep lower wick to Friday's candle which signaled a potential reversal for cable. This was given further impetus on Monday, & the buying was cemented as yesterday's candle ended the session with an even deeper lower wick. The current daily chart...
Read More

Aussie dollar now in sharp focus ahead of Trade Balance

If you come along to our forex webinars you will always hear David & I explain the importance of the fundamental news & how easy it is to be ambushed by 'events'. But I must admit so far it's been absolutely relentless & it's only Wednesday! Coming up we have Aussie retail sales & Trade Balance - both very important numbers, and so far it's been a buy of the Aussie except against the euro - a trade we've been following. Of the two releases - the Trade Balance number has been negative since July last year, and whilst February's number was encouraging, coming in at -0.44b against a forecast of -0.85b, the subsequent releases have been dire. Tonight's headline number is -2.17b against a forecast of -1.32b, in fact a further deterioration, and with AUD/USD having moved strongly higher yesterday as a result of USD weakness. it's no surprise to see a doji on today's daily chart, which by coincidence is...
Read More

EUR/USD turns bearish moving through the VPOC

The EUR/USD continues to look bearish as it sits on support between 1.0885 & 1.0890 & just below the VPOC the yellow line on the volume point of control indicator. This level has now been breached on good volume and should take the pair to 1.0863. In addition the trend monitor has also transitioned from blue to red and with the US unemployment data coming up shortly, this could provide further downwards momentum if the numbers are on target or better than expected. The forecast this time around is 271k against a previous of 274k and whilst this is an important number it is the backwash from Janet Yellen's US dollar positive comments which continue to drive the US dollar higher, coupled as always with ongoing concerns over the Greek debt issues, which have yet to be resolved - if ever! The currency strength indicator is confirming the negative sentiment for the single currency with the orange line, the euro, reaching an...
Read More