https://youtu.be/nPZJa2zqzxA A great session this morning with David and myself and we started with the EUR/AUD which has been rising strongly for the last few days, and one of the lessons from our private trading chat room where we support our forex education program members. This was an example of an annotated chart of the EUR/AUD posted in the forum in real time and explaining some of the key VPA lessons. One of the hardest things to do in trading is to stay in a trend once a position begins to develop into profit, particularly when the trend pauses and starts to pull back or reverse. This happens in all timeframes and is when the market pauses and moves into congestion. So how do we know whether this is a true change in the primary trend, or simply a move into a secondary trend before re-establishing the primary trend once more, and this is where volume price analysis steps in. This is...
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The three indices we often forget as forex traders!

https://youtu.be/lYtz5YrK5ro In this video we explain the importance of understanding where the three major currencies are heading, whether intraday or on a longer term basis. The three main currencies are of course the US dollar, the Japanese yen and the single currency of the euro. The Quantum Trading suite of tools and indicators delivers an index for all three, and using the tab feature of NinjaTrader 8 offers a compact and efficient way to monitor these key currencies in all timeframes, whilst optimising space on the screen. This allows you as a forex trader to track these currencies, and from there have a much clearer view of where each is heading which will then be reflected in the major currency complex or the cross currency complex accordingly. The US dollar, the Japanese yen and the euro are three currencies which drive the forex market universally, and having this clear view is paramount to then understanding where the currency pairs themselves are heading individually....
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Sterling bears out in force

A worse than expected UK manufacturing production figure of -0.4% against a forecast of 0.1% (-0.4% was the figure in December) has given sterling bears a further excuse to sell the currency, with some really nice downtrends in a number of GBP pairs. In addition industrial production also followed a similar trend coming at -0.7% against a forecast of 0%, and declining further against last month's number of 0.1%, The data injected volatility into the sterling pairs, with volatility candles triggering in the faster time frames. Cable managed to find some minor support at 1.4458, before moving lower, and what is significant is that the hourly CSI is showing GBP as likely to be moving steadily lower, and we will have to wait for the US session to see if there is any halt to the current bearish momentum....
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Kiwi roaring higher on the currency strength indicator

Good to see the Kiwi on a bit of tear (the white line on the currency strength indicator), but comes as no surprise given how oversold it was at the end of last week. We've been tracking the NZD/USD which has had a huge move higher overnight & broken through the VPOC on the daily chart and is now touching the 100 ma. As we mentioned in yesterday's webinar although December price action can often seem erratic, it can nonetheless offer some great trading opportunities. And those of you who come along regularly to our webinars will know David & I are great fans of both the Kiwi and Aussie! You can register for the trading webinars here. The hourly currency strength indicator is showing some great potential set ups. Have a great trading day....
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GBP in focus ahead of Autumn budget

This morning's highlight comes from Chancellor George Osborne here in the UK with his Autumn Forecast Statement, so expect lots of smoke & mirrors, volatility and opportunity to shake traders out of the market.For the British pound complex on the faster time frames, it's been a case of some good moves lower against USD, JPY & euro. The hourly currency strength indicator is also highlighting the GBP as heavily oversold, but as we have said many times in our forex webinars - currencies, markets and instrument can stay stubbornly over extended much longer than we think. And as we also say in the webinars your time horizon will always be a factor in any trading decision, and also help to quantify the level of risk associated with that trade. Discover more about the currency strength indicator here....
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Eurodollar bears take control

Although the market is focused on tomorrow's release of the FOMC minutes, an event guaranteed to cause a degree of market volatility, it is the release of the CPI and Core CPI numbers earlier in the session which are probably even more important. Of the two releases it is the Core CPI the FED pays the most attention to, and a big influence on the likely timing of any rise in interest rates. Meantime, the USD appears to have found its mojo once again following last week's dramatic fall, with the eurodollar bearing the brunt of this resurgence. The daily chart for the eurodollar is particularly interesting where weakness for the pair started last week with the failure to break and hold above the VPOC (volume point of control) in the 1.1167 price region. Friday's close below the 100 ma appears to have been the catalyst for a pick up in bearish sentiment for eurodollar which saw the pair close yesterday's trading...
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And now we wait for the forex market to open!

Have been reading that carnage is expected and word is EUR/USD has already dropped to 1.1029 - although my MT4 hasn't started as yet, so we will have to wait & see. Meantime here are some levels for some of the euro pairs : EUR/USD - was already bearish & shorts at CFTC increased last week. Putting the 1.1029 aside for the time being - 1.1052 is the first level of support & if breached 1.0819 comes into play where a high volume node on the VPOC awaits. EUR/JPY - Has been in congestion for a number of days having failed to breach the 140.78 price point & now looking to turn bearish. The immediate level below is at 137.57 with any move through here then likely to test the 136.69 region. The VPOC continues to remain in the 134.94 region for the time being and should this be taken out then a longer term bearish trend will ensue. EUR/AUD - The interest rate...
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RBNZ drives volatility into the New Zealand dollar overnight!

The RBNZ certainly livened things up overnight - I don't remember seeing quite so many gaps or such strong moves delivered by one currency! NZD is pretty illiquid at the best of times, so any volatility will magnify any moves. With the NZD it's a case of the central bank making it very clear further rate cuts are on their way & with the US finding some bullish sentiment this morning - NZD/USD looks set for a further fall. So far this morning the pair has managed to find some support at the 0.70 region, but a quick look at the weekly and monthly chart reveals the extent of this bearish sentiment. with the month chart in particular, where the price is now at the 200 ma. The VPOC ( volume point of control) is now well above the current price action and adding further weight to the bearish sentiment. In addition, with several LVN (low volume nodes) we are likely to...
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Central banks and GBP centre stage on currency matrix

We have four central banks on today's trading horizon, BOJ, RBA, BOE & later this evening we have interest rate decision, policy statement and a press conference from the RBNZ. I really must come up with a collective noun for the CB's! In between we have the Manufacturing Number for the UK where forecast is for 0.1% against a previous of 0.4%. This release can be very difficult to judge as there has been no clear trend since 2009 when the number was consistently awful. On the GBP matrix we have seen some strong buying of GBP against USD, which is not surprising given the alleged Obama comments at the G7. However, GBP buying actually started last week after NFP. It was the deep lower wick to Friday's candle which signaled a potential reversal for cable. This was given further impetus on Monday, & the buying was cemented as yesterday's candle ended the session with an even deeper lower wick. The current daily chart...
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USD/CAD now testing key VPOC level

Once GBP data is out of the way we can then look forward to the unemployment claims in the US and the Ivey PMI from Canada. Both items are released at the same time & here expect to see the biggest reaction in the USD/CAD. On the daily chart for the pair the resistance in the 1.2470 - 1.25 region (which also coincides with the VPOC), is putting a temporary brake on any move higher. On our daily currency strength indicator we do appear to have more downside for the CAD, particularly against the euro where we recently had a strong move away from the resistance in the 1.38 region. As always the Canadian dollar will also reflect price trends for oil, and with OPEC now set on a collision course with the alternative energy suppliers in an overt price war, oil prices look set to remain low for years to come. Indeed OPEC themselves have publicly stated that oil will...
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