Spoilt for choice in the fx session – which pair to choose!!

Spoilt for choice in the fx session – which pair to choose!!

A great forex session and one where we were truly spoiled for choice, with the US dollar leading the way as safe haven flows saw the currency of first reserve rise strongly as European markets opened. This was countered with equally strong selling in several different currencies including the Australian dollar, the euro and the pound and clearly signaled on the currency strength indicator. The move in the euro was triggered as a result of problems once more in the Italian banking system, an issue which like Greece, has never been resolved, and which is now rising once again to the surface. But in this session we focused on one of these, the Aussie dollar which delivered a wonderful trend lower, and confirmed with all the associated indicators of the currency heatmap, the currency array and the currency matrix, with safe haven flows driving the US dollar, and equally strong bearish flows driving the Aussie, and combining in wonderful trading opportunity to...
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https://youtu.be/nPZJa2zqzxA A great session this morning with David and myself and we started with the EUR/AUD which has been rising strongly for the last few days, and one of the lessons from our private trading chat room where we support our forex education program members. This was an example of an annotated chart of the EUR/AUD posted in the forum in real time and explaining some of the key VPA lessons. One of the hardest things to do in trading is to stay in a trend once a position begins to develop into profit, particularly when the trend pauses and starts to pull back or reverse. This happens in all timeframes and is when the market pauses and moves into congestion. So how do we know whether this is a true change in the primary trend, or simply a move into a secondary trend before re-establishing the primary trend once more, and this is where volume price analysis steps in. This is...
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Volume point of control (VPOC) holds key for gold

Volume point of control (VPOC) holds key for gold

All traders understand the significance of price levels, and use any number of methods of trying to establish which are important and which to target not only as potential price objectives, but also try to try and establish where price is likely to stall. And what makes a price level significant is whether it is reflected across different time frames, and we have a great example from the daily and monthly charts for gold. On the daily chart we've seen some reasonable buying coming in at 1235, and perhaps even the start of a double bottom with the Camarilla marking the upside levels that need to be breached. But the monthly is looking bearish as the gold price is trying to break away from VPOC in the 1260 region, but what is significant this is also the R4 level on the daily and which is where only a break and hold here would signal the resumption of bullish sentiment. However, short term the...
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Currency Strength Indicator for MT5

https://youtu.be/hTIoPrPNIzM David and I working on completing our Quantum indicators for MT5, and delighted with how effective they are on this platform, in particular the use of MT5's custom time frames, which makes multi time frame analysis so much easier. And MT5 has also allowed us to add push notifications to the currency strength indicator. Now working on the remaining indicators, and our complete package users will also have access to two brand new indicators for free. These are the euro index, and the Quantum Camarilla indicator....
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Classic VPA on GBP/JPY

A classic VPA on 5 min chart of GBP/JPY on the release of NFP today. Huge down candle on light volume, before we saw a switch back higher as market absorbed poor numbers, and likelihood of a September FED hike in interest rates disappear faster than snow in July. The trigger of the volatility indicator (purple arrows) also signaled high probability of a re-trace to within spread of the down candle. Volume simply validated this point. Indeed FED Funds Rate now pricing in a 44% probability of a rise in rates in December which is a re-run of last year's interest rate saga. As of yesterday FED funds showing a 30% probability of a rise in September  ...
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Divergence in euro complex

From a technical perspective last week was not an easy one for the euro with a divergence of sentiment across the complex. Against the USD it found some much needed support at the 1.0825 support level, which provided the springboard for a move up and through the VPOC on the daily chart at the key 1.09 price point. The pair managed to maintain this bullish momentum through to the end of week before finally ending the week at 1.1004 on reasonable volume. However, this move higher has, so farfailed to follow through in today's trading session with the 100 ema providing the cap. Bearish sentiment towards the euro has also increased in the futures market where shorts have added 18.1k contracts taking the total gross short position to 172.5k, the largest increase since November 2015. This week we also have the ECB interest rate decision and obligatory press conference, and given the current economic downturn in the eurozone, the market is...
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Watching the euro

Following last week's turbulent price action, no surprise that today the markets have been a litte muted with the added bonus the Shanghai Composite only fell 5% in overnight trading. And with Japan closed for it's annual Coming of Age Holiday even the Nikkei could take a day off! Meantime last Friday the euro was the currency to watch as it ended the trading week on a burst higher against most of its counterparts, and posting very positive candles on the daily charts. However, despite an early follow through today's trading session for the euro has been marked by some great trades to the short side, in particular against the USD, the Aussie, GBP, NZD & CAD. The euro daily matrix illustrates this perfectly with the eur/usd, eur/gbp/ & eur/aud all exhibiting similar price action. The exception had been the eur/nzd, but here too the euro appears to be moving back to test the VPOC (volume point of control) at 1.6420. Against the...
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Is Swiss Franc ready to turn higher?

With year end on the horizon, now perhaps is a good time to see what the Swiss franc has been up in an effort to determine what the currency is likely to be doing in the run up to the 15th January 2015 anniversary when the SNB (Swiss National Bank) removed the floor of support for the currency, unleashing a wave of volatility on the markets not seen since the dark days of the financial crisis back in 2008. From a technical standpoint the Swiss Franc is now heavily oversold on the hourly and daily currency strength indicator, against most of its counterparts, with the exception of the where the picture is very different, with the pair firmly range bound albeit well below the 1.20 price point, which triggered the January volatility. With regard to the other CHF pairs, and in particular the USD/CHF the current move higher that started in mid October is now reaching an exhaustion point, as the pair...
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Majors wait for the FED

Ahead of today's release of the FOMC minutes it has been the commodity dollars that have reacted most strongly to a stronger USD, whilst eurodollar and cable have been contained to a very narrow trading range. It will be interesting to see whether these two laggards will play catch up once the minutes hit the news wires. USD/JPY too has been contained with the pair cautiously approaching the 124 price point, but finding the 123.60 price level so far difficult to breach. For the USD/JPY it will be a case of the reaction in equities which will determine whether we see any further upwards momentum in this pair, as the market waits for clues as to the FED's intentions towards interest rates.  ...
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