If you come along to our forex webinars you will always hear David & I explain the importance of the fundamental news & how easy it is to be ambushed by ‘events’. But I must admit so far it’s been absolutely relentless & it’s only Wednesday!
Coming up we have Aussie retail sales & Trade Balance – both very important numbers, and so far it’s been a buy of the Aussie except against the euro – a trade we’ve been following. Of the two releases – the Trade Balance number has been negative since July last year, and whilst February’s number was encouraging, coming in at -0.44b against a forecast of -0.85b, the subsequent releases have been dire.
Tonight’s headline number is -2.17b against a forecast of -1.32b, in fact a further deterioration, and with AUD/USD having moved strongly higher yesterday as a result of USD weakness. it’s no surprise to see a doji on today’s daily chart, which by coincidence is also sitting on the VPOC (volume point of control) in the 0.7780 region. Doji candles are classic signals of indecision & will often appear before major releases such as the Trade Balance.