Aussie Dollar Now in Sharp Focus Ahead of Trade Balance
The Aussie dollar is now in sharp focus ahead of Trade Balance data. This release measures exports vs imports. Strong figures boost AUD. Weak ones pressure it. Traders watch closely for commodity currency clues.
If you come along to our forex webinars you will always hear David & I explain the importance of the fundamental news & how easy it is to be ambushed by 'events'. But I must admit so far it's been absolutely relentless & it's only Wednesday! Coming up we have Aussie retail sales & Trade Balance - both very important numbers, and so far it's been a buy of the Aussie except against the euro - a trade we've been following. Of the two releases - the Trade Balance number has been negative since July last year, and whilst February's number was encouraging, coming in at -0.44b against a forecast of -0.85b, the subsequent releases have been dire.
Tonight's...
EUR/USD Turns Bearish Moving Through the VPOC
EUR/USD turns bearish moving through the VPOC. This key level acted as support. Price broke lower with conviction. Volume price analysis (VPA) confirmed the shift to downside momentum.
The EUR/USD continues to look bearish as it sits on support between 1.0885 & 1.0890 & just below the VPOC the yellow line on the volume point of control indicator. This level has now been breached on good volume and should take the pair to 1.0863. In addition the trend monitor has also transitioned from blue to red and with the US unemployment data coming up shortly, this could provide further downwards momentum if the numbers are on target or better than expected.
The forecast this time around is 271k against a previous of 274k and whilst this is an important number it is the backwash from Janet Yellen's US dollar positive comments which continue to drive the US dollar higher, coupled as always with ongoing concerns over the...
GBP Gets a Boost from Retail Sales
GBP gets a boost from strong retail sales data. Positive figures signal consumer spending strength. This supports economic growth expectations. Traders see it as bullish for the pound.
UK retail sales have given GBP a real boost higher & it's occupying six top spots on the currency matrix. Number was a great improvement & market has temporarily forgotten the negative CPI number.
What's interesting is at 8.00 am at the London open, there was a huge buy of cable off an important order board level at 1.5520 with retail sales then just adding the momentum.
Cable is also benefiting from USD pull back from its recent bullish move higher. The 4hr currency strength indicator is particularly revealing as the USD has been overbought for some time, but is now moving lower. The move higher in the London session has now tested the VPOC level on the daily chart, and we are waiting to see if this afternoon's...
An Interesting Week For GBP
It was an interesting week for the British pound and, in particular, against the US dollar, with the pair selling off sharply on Friday and closing with a wide spread down candle on the daily chart. The move lower was in stark contrast to the recent trend for Cable, which had been firmly bullish, rising in tandem with the EUR/USD as US dollar weakness prevailed on the dollar index. The move on Friday came as no surprise to those traders using a currency strength indicator, with the British pound moving into a deeply overbought region on the indicator, while the US dollar was equally oversold in the slower timeframes.
With Thursday's election now on the horizon, and with a slew of opinion polls due for release in the next few days, these are continually signalling a close result with no party likely to have an overall majority in Parliament. As a result, we can expect to see...
Ahead of the manufacturing production number the British pound has been particularly lively in the past couple of hours with 6 volatility candles alone being triggered on Cable on the 3 min chart.
For Cable, yesterday's rally which saw the pair bounce off support in the 1.4760 region was a move more akin to a 'dead cat bounce' as once the pair hit the major resistance at 1.4840 at the start of the US session opened the floodgates for some heavy duty selling. This took cable down 1.4684 before it finally managed to find some support as the market moved into Asia.
A number of reasons have been suggested for this move, including the tensions and uncertainty surrounding the upcoming UK election, and as highlighted yesterday, we are seeing a major sell off in UK gilts. In the face of such uncertainty It appears foreign investors would much rather move their money into US Treasuries and Asia, and Japanese investors in particular...
It's been another great day's trading on the EUR/AUD, which has continued the bearish tone from yesterday, following the RBA statement and a decision to keep interest rates on hold for the time being. The 60 minute chart has delivered a consistent trend today with the pair moving through the platform of support in the 1.4125 region and as defined with the accumulation and distribution indicator. The trend monitor at the bottom of the chart continues to confirm the bearish tone, supported by the trend dots indicator. Early this afternoon the wide spread down candle saw the pair close at 1.4016 on very high volume, and confirming the current bearish tone for the pair.
To the left of the chart, the Quantum currency strength indicator confirms the technical picture, with the euro (the orange line) now deep in oversold territory, and with the Aussie dollar (the blue line) continuing to rise deep into the overbought region. A great trade on this...
Terrific Trend on the EUR/AUD This Morning
A terrific trend unfolded on EUR/AUD this morning. This cross pair delivered strong momentum. Price moved steadily higher. The London session amplified it. Traders spotted clear opportunities.
In this morning's forex trading session with Anna and David, one of the currency pairs they focused on was the EUR/AUD, which was the strongest-performing currency pair in the currency matrix. The 60-minute currency strength indicator confirmed the longer-term position, with the euro (the orange line) climbing strongly towards the overbought region on the indicator, with the Aussie dollar ( the blue line) moving firmly towards the oversold region in this timeframe.
The 5-minute chart alongside reflects the trend, with the trend monitor maintaining the bullish picture, and only moving into a transitional colour during the minor congestion periods. The trend monitor sister indicator, the trend dots, completes the picture and highlights these congestion phases in advance.
Volumes throughout the move were in agreement and confirming the bullish sentiment for...
Question
Hi Anna, Firstly, I just wanted to say I've just finished "Forex For Beginners" and I thoroughly enjoyed the book; I found it extremely helpful and useful. Opened my first forex account on Friday of last week. Made some mistakes at first, lacked the discipline to follow my strategy, I think I was a tad over-keen to trade at first. I've just purchased "A Complete Guide to VPA" so I'll start on that tonight.
I have a quick question though if you wouldn't mind answering. In Forex for Beginners, you use the Currency Strength Indicator to look for potential indicators of an upcoming reversal. And then from this, you use the currency matrix and analysis to confirm the reversal. I was just wondering if you could use the same strategy to indicate a continuing trend? If this is explained in the book I've just purchased I apologise, I just thought I'd ask.
For Example
For example, if both the Aus and Usd are...
