In a relatively quiet day of trading in the forex markets with both the UK and Japan closed for public holidays, it's been the Canadian dollar which has moved significantly during the session, and picking up the longer term bearish tone once again. In early trading, the pair moved in a tight range, before finally breaking through the platform of support in the 1.2145 area and continuing lower to currently trade at 1.2095 at the time of writing. The price action has now continued lower with the volume point of control indicator (VPOC indicator MT4) remaining firmly in place above in the 1.2110 area on the 30 minute chart, and signalling further downside momentum in due course.
The trend monitor has remained firmly red throughout the trading session, and with the currency strength indicator to the left confirming further strength for the CAD and weakness for the USD, the volume point of control (VPOC) is likely to move to the next...
An Interesting Week For GBP
It was an interesting week for the British pound and, in particular, against the US dollar, with the pair selling off sharply on Friday and closing with a wide spread down candle on the daily chart. The move lower was in stark contrast to the recent trend for Cable, which had been firmly bullish, rising in tandem with the EUR/USD as US dollar weakness prevailed on the dollar index. The move on Friday came as no surprise to those traders using a currency strength indicator, with the British pound moving into a deeply overbought region on the indicator, while the US dollar was equally oversold in the slower timeframes.
With Thursday's election now on the horizon, and with a slew of opinion polls due for release in the next few days, these are continually signalling a close result with no party likely to have an overall majority in Parliament. As a result, we can expect to see...
USD Weakness Continues to Drive Cable
USD weakness continues to drive Cable higher. GBP/USD rallies steadily. This reflects dollar selling pressure. Traders see bullish momentum in the pound against the greenback.
Cable selling off sharply on the back of poor GDP figure falling to a low of 1.5176, but recovering sharply and back over key support at 1.5220, and with USD continuing to look weak no reason why it cable can't continue higher. It has already touched 1.5260 & beyond this price level we are then looking at 1.53 and beyond.
This afternoon we have the CB consumer confidence release at 2.00 pm London. USD weakness has also played its part in these moves.
USD index is now the one to watch - running into the release and also ahead of tomorrow's FOMC.
Volume Price Analysis Confirmation
Volume price analysis (VPA) confirms the drive. Rising prices with increasing volume show buying conviction. Low volume pullbacks signal weakness in sellers. Quantum currency strength indicator ranks GBP high...
Cable Continues to Build Bullish Momentum
Cable (GBP/USD) continues to build bullish momentum. Buying pressure grows steadily. Price pushes higher on consistent volume. This signals sustained demand for the pound against the dollar.
For forex traders in London yesterday morning, eurozone PMI and UK retail sales were the main items of fundamental news. And it was Cable again which provided us with some important trading lessons.
The first was how we need to be aware of positioning ahead of any major news release. In the run up to the retail sales number, Cable had been basing around the 1.4920 support platform, having come off the 1.4975 high of the previous evening, thereby creating the start of what looked to be a down candle.
However, as always is it the daily chart which is so important, providing us with a more macro view of any currency pair, and here Cable has been very bullish since bouncing off major support in the 1.4898 region.
Just Ahead
Just ahead...
Ahead of the German ZEW data this morning, markets are positioning for a move in the euro dollar, with the euro now heavily oversold and the US dollar equally over bought in the faster timeframes. Using the currency strength indicator in multiple timeframes provides a fast and visual picture of currency strength and weakness, with the euro (the gold line) now deeply oversold from the the 5 minute to the 30 minute timeframe, and preparing to reverse the longer term bearish sentiment ahead of the news. Apart from the ZEW, the only other ongoing euro news is of course Greece which continues to weigh on the single currency.
Finally remember that any market or currency can remain over extended for some time, and as always patience is the key coupled with the price action on the charts. The currency strength indicator is always the starting point to identify potential strength and weakness in an individual currency. Then it's time to consider...
As the markets get under way in London this morning, and with a relatively thin day for fundamental news, the US dollar is once again advancing on the fast time frame charts and providing some excellent intraday scalping opportunities across the currency majors. Both the British pound and the euro have been selling off sharply against the US dollar, with the currency strength indicator on the 15 minute timeframe showing the US dollar, the red line rising firmly and moving towards the overbought region, with the euro (orange) and the pound (yellow) both moving strongly lower along with the Swiss franc (green).
The chart alongside is of the GBP/USD in a slightly slower time frame (30m) and reflecting the current bearish sentiment at present for this pair, with the Trend Monitor at the bottom of the chart remaining firmly red, with the current volume rising, and confirming the current move lower. In addition, Cable is now breaking below the recent platform...
Ahead of the manufacturing production number the British pound has been particularly lively in the past couple of hours with 6 volatility candles alone being triggered on Cable on the 3 min chart.
For Cable, yesterday's rally which saw the pair bounce off support in the 1.4760 region was a move more akin to a 'dead cat bounce' as once the pair hit the major resistance at 1.4840 at the start of the US session opened the floodgates for some heavy duty selling. This took cable down 1.4684 before it finally managed to find some support as the market moved into Asia.
A number of reasons have been suggested for this move, including the tensions and uncertainty surrounding the upcoming UK election, and as highlighted yesterday, we are seeing a major sell off in UK gilts. In the face of such uncertainty It appears foreign investors would much rather move their money into US Treasuries and Asia, and Japanese investors in particular...
It's been another great day's trading on the EUR/AUD, which has continued the bearish tone from yesterday, following the RBA statement and a decision to keep interest rates on hold for the time being. The 60 minute chart has delivered a consistent trend today with the pair moving through the platform of support in the 1.4125 region and as defined with the accumulation and distribution indicator. The trend monitor at the bottom of the chart continues to confirm the bearish tone, supported by the trend dots indicator. Early this afternoon the wide spread down candle saw the pair close at 1.4016 on very high volume, and confirming the current bearish tone for the pair.
To the left of the chart, the Quantum currency strength indicator confirms the technical picture, with the euro (the orange line) now deep in oversold territory, and with the Aussie dollar (the blue line) continuing to rise deep into the overbought region. A great trade on this...
Impact
Aussie Dollar Strengthens as RBA Keeps Rates on Hold
The Aussie dollar strengthens as RBA keeps rates on hold. This decision often boosts AUD sentiment. Steady policy signals economic stability. Traders see it as supportive for commodity currencies.
The main focus overnight was in Australia with the RBA deciding to hold the current cash rate at 2.25%, with no cut. This decision was against the backdrop of declining commodity prices and a slowdown in China with many expecting the rate to be cut to 2.00%. As a result the Aussie dollar strengthened on the news against many of the major currencies, with another nice move on the EUR/AUD on the 15 minute chart.
Quantum Indicators
The Quantum accumulation and distribution indicator initially defined the support and resistance region with the 1.4360 being the key level of support and a region that had been tested on several occasions prior to the news. The bearish sentiment was confirmed with the trend monitor to the bottom...
NinjaTrader Launches Forex Brokerage
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