And now we wait for the forex market to open!

by Quantum Trading Comment Closed
Have been reading that carnage is expected and word is EUR/USD has already dropped to 1.1029 - although my MT4 hasn't started as yet, so we will have to wait & see. Meantime here are some levels for some of the euro pairs : EUR/USD - was already bearish & shorts at CFTC increased last week. Putting the 1.1029 aside for the time being - 1.1052 is the first level of support & if breached 1.0819 comes into play where a high volume node on the VPOC awaits. EUR/JPY - Has been in congestion for a number of days having failed to breach the 140.78 price point & now looking to turn bearish. The immediate level below is at 137.57 with any move through here then likely to test the 136.69 region. The VPOC continues to remain in the 134.94 region for the time being and should this be taken out then a longer term bearish trend will ensue. EUR/AUD - The interest rate...
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Forget the euro, look at the British pound!

by Quantum Trading Comment Closed
In all the brouhaha about Greece and the euro it's easy to forget what else is going on in the forex market. Sometimes I feel Greece is taking up too much space in traders' heads at the expense of other markets and currencies. And for a perfect example of what I mean look no further than the continued strength in GBP which has seen some great trends in GBP/NZD & GBP/CAD & I'm still waiting for the GBP/JPY to turn lower, but only once we see a major reversal in risk sentiment. On both charts the NinjaTrader trend monitor has remained firmly bullish with only a minor transition on the GBP/CAD reflecting the recent pause in the longer term trend. However, moving to the NinjaTrader currency strength indicator to the left of the chart, here we can see that the British Pound, the yellow line, is now moving ever deeper into the oversold region on the daily timeframe, so this trend...
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RBNZ drives volatility into the New Zealand dollar overnight!

by Quantum Trading Comment Closed
The RBNZ certainly livened things up overnight - I don't remember seeing quite so many gaps or such strong moves delivered by one currency! NZD is pretty illiquid at the best of times, so any volatility will magnify any moves. With the NZD it's a case of the central bank making it very clear further rate cuts are on their way & with the US finding some bullish sentiment this morning - NZD/USD looks set for a further fall. So far this morning the pair has managed to find some support at the 0.70 region, but a quick look at the weekly and monthly chart reveals the extent of this bearish sentiment. with the month chart in particular, where the price is now at the 200 ma. The VPOC ( volume point of control) is now well above the current price action and adding further weight to the bearish sentiment. In addition, with several LVN (low volume nodes) we are likely to...
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Central banks and GBP centre stage on currency matrix

by Quantum Trading Comment Closed
We have four central banks on today's trading horizon, BOJ, RBA, BOE & later this evening we have interest rate decision, policy statement and a press conference from the RBNZ. I really must come up with a collective noun for the CB's! In between we have the Manufacturing Number for the UK where forecast is for 0.1% against a previous of 0.4%. This release can be very difficult to judge as there has been no clear trend since 2009 when the number was consistently awful. On the GBP matrix we have seen some strong buying of GBP against USD, which is not surprising given the alleged Obama comments at the G7. However, GBP buying actually started last week after NFP. It was the deep lower wick to Friday's candle which signaled a potential reversal for cable. This was given further impetus on Monday, & the buying was cemented as yesterday's candle ended the session with an even deeper lower wick. The current daily chart...
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The yen currency matrix in focus as equities fall

by Quantum Trading Comment Closed
The overnight fall in the Nikkei 225 of 1.76% has resulted in an impressive two bar reversal (aka a shooting star) on the daily chart for the USD/JPY - so no surprise to see the pair move lower in this morning's trading session. What is perhaps more significant is this move in the JPY is not consistent across the JPY pairs we follow on our matrix, and in particular the EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY. The latter is a pair I am looking to short on a longer term basis, but patience is required not least because I want to see the JPY begin to move away from the bottom (oversold) on the currency strength indicator. This also highlights a key aspect of forex trading, namely individual currencies can stay overbought or oversold for much longer than we expect. Much, of course, will depend on risk sentiment, and in particular whether the current downwards trend in equities continues, and if so then we...
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USD/CAD now testing key VPOC level

by Quantum Trading Comment Closed
Once GBP data is out of the way we can then look forward to the unemployment claims in the US and the Ivey PMI from Canada. Both items are released at the same time & here expect to see the biggest reaction in the USD/CAD. On the daily chart for the pair the resistance in the 1.2470 - 1.25 region (which also coincides with the VPOC), is putting a temporary brake on any move higher. On our daily currency strength indicator we do appear to have more downside for the CAD, particularly against the euro where we recently had a strong move away from the resistance in the 1.38 region. As always the Canadian dollar will also reflect price trends for oil, and with OPEC now set on a collision course with the alternative energy suppliers in an overt price war, oil prices look set to remain low for years to come. Indeed OPEC themselves have publicly stated that oil will...
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GBP now awaits BOE this morning

by Quantum Trading Comment Closed
The combination of poor retail sales and a worse than expected Trade Balance number has resulted in a unanimous sell of Aussie overnight, with big moves across all the AUD pairs.Now focus shifts to the UK, US & Canada. First up is GBP with an interest rate decision from the BOE and statement. Market not expecting any change, but statement will be interesting given recent run of poor PMI. On the GBP matrix of six pairs we monitor cable's recent reversal off the VPOC indicator for MT4 at 1.5145 has now stalled & is waiting for today's news.Of the others GBP/JPY has been in consolidation and testing the deep resistance at the 190.71 area. And of the three GBP commodity pairs, all look pretty similar and testing key resistance levels with the trend monitor below confirming the bearish picture at present. The decision, as always, is whether to sit out the news, or if you are already in a trade whether...
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Aussie dollar now in sharp focus ahead of Trade Balance

by Quantum Trading Comment Closed
If you come along to our forex webinars you will always hear David & I explain the importance of the fundamental news & how easy it is to be ambushed by 'events'. But I must admit so far it's been absolutely relentless & it's only Wednesday! Coming up we have Aussie retail sales & Trade Balance - both very important numbers, and so far it's been a buy of the Aussie except against the euro - a trade we've been following. Of the two releases - the Trade Balance number has been negative since July last year, and whilst February's number was encouraging, coming in at -0.44b against a forecast of -0.85b, the subsequent releases have been dire. Tonight's headline number is -2.17b against a forecast of -1.32b, in fact a further deterioration, and with AUD/USD having moved strongly higher yesterday as a result of USD weakness. it's no surprise to see a doji on today's daily chart, which by coincidence is...
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EUR/NZD reverses recent trend for the New Zealand dollar

by Quantum Trading Comment Closed
The EUR/NZD has delivered some excellent trading opportunities across all the timeframes this morning to the short side, following the recent heavily bearish sentiment towards the New Zealand dollar which has seen it weaken against all the major currencies. Indeed longer term the NZD is now looking increasingly oversold, so we may see this trend reflected on the slower timeframe charts in due course. This morning's move was signalled initially with a move below the volume point of control (VPOC) on the 30 minute chart ( the yellow line), a move that was duly supported with rising volume and confirming the bearish sentiment. In addition, the transition in the trend monitor indicator from blue to red also confirmed this reversal, coupled with a pivot high indicator prior to the move through the VPOC. Since then, momentum to the downside has increased with volumes also rising sharply and confirming the wide spread down candle as we approach a potential area of support...
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EUR/USD turns bearish moving through the VPOC

by Quantum Trading Comment Closed
The EUR/USD continues to look bearish as it sits on support between 1.0885 & 1.0890 & just below the VPOC the yellow line on the volume point of control indicator. This level has now been breached on good volume and should take the pair to 1.0863. In addition the trend monitor has also transitioned from blue to red and with the US unemployment data coming up shortly, this could provide further downwards momentum if the numbers are on target or better than expected. The forecast this time around is 271k against a previous of 274k and whilst this is an important number it is the backwash from Janet Yellen's US dollar positive comments which continue to drive the US dollar higher, coupled as always with ongoing concerns over the Greek debt issues, which have yet to be resolved - if ever! The currency strength indicator is confirming the negative sentiment for the single currency with the orange line, the euro, reaching an...
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