This morning's highlight comes from Chancellor George Osborne here in the UK with his Autumn Forecast Statement, so expect lots of smoke & mirrors, volatility and opportunity to shake traders out of the market.For the British pound complex on the faster time frames, it's been a case of some good moves lower against USD, JPY & euro. The hourly currency strength indicator is also highlighting the GBP as heavily oversold, but as we have said many times in our forex webinars - currencies, markets and instrument can stay stubbornly over extended much longer than we think. And as we also say in the webinars your time horizon will always be a factor in any trading decision, and also help to quantify the level of risk associated with that trade.
Discover more about the currency strength indicator here....
VIX Continues to Drift Ever Lower
The VIX continues to drift ever lower. This signals calm markets. Low readings reflect investor complacency. Expected volatility in the S&P 500 stays subdued. Traders interpret this as risk-on sentiment.
What Is the VIX and How Does It Work
The VIX, or CBOE Volatility Index, is known as the "fear gauge". It measures implied volatility from S&P 500 options prices. Calculations look 30 days ahead. High VIX shows fear and uncertainty. Low VIX indicates confidence and stability.
Volatility Indicator as a Sentiment Indicator
A drifting lower VIX displays bullish market sentiment. Investors feel safe buying equities. Safe-haven currencies like yen weaken. And volume price analysis (VPA) complements this—low volatility often aligns with steady uptrends and rising volume.
Trading Implications
Low VIX can precede tops if complacency peaks. Watch for sudden spikes as reversals. Quantum indicators on NinjaTrader or TradingView track VIX alongside equities. Anna Coulling's VPA approach uses it for intermarket context.
Monitor the VIX drift carefully. It reveals sentiment shifts early....
Pound Hammered in US Forex Session
The British pound was hammered in the US forex session. Bearish pressure intensified during overlap hours. GBP pairs sold off sharply. This reflected renewed dollar strength and risk aversion.
Volume Price Analysis Insights
Volume price analysis (VPA) confirmed the selling. High volume on down candles showed conviction. No buying support appeared at lows. Quantum currency strength indicator highlighted GBP weakness relative to USD.
Trading Takeaways
Sessions like this reward bearish bias on GBP. Watch for continuation or exhaustion. Anna Coulling's VPA approach with Quantum tools spots distribution phases early for timely shorts.
US session volatility often hammers currencies. Use Quantum indicators to navigate pound moves confidently.
Trading the GBP in a Strong Downtrend: How VPA Signals the Bottom with Stopping Volume
The British pound (GBP) can enter strong downtrends. This happens on risk-off sentiment or UK data weakness. Pairs like GBP/USD or GBP/JPY fall sharply. Traders short with momentum. But trends end. Volume price analysis (VPA) spots the bottom early—stopping volume is...
Which Pairs Should I Focus On as a Forex Beginner and Why?
As a forex beginner, the market can feel overwhelming with dozens of pairs. But starting smart is key. Focus on the major pairs. These involve the US dollar (USD) and another strong currency. They offer the best conditions for learning. Here's why—and which to prioritize.
The Major Pairs: Your Starting Point
The seven majors:
EUR/USD (Eurodollar): Most traded. Tightest spreads. Reacts to ECB/Fed policy.
GBP/USD (Cable): Volatile but liquid. UK data drives swings.
USD/JPY: Yen safe-haven flows. Low spreads.
USD/CHF: Swiss stability vs USD.
AUD/USD: Commodity-linked Aussie.
USD/CAD: Oil-driven CAD.
NZD/USD: Kiwi, similar to AUD.
These account for ~85% of forex volume.
Why Majors Are Best for Beginners
High Liquidity: Fast execution. Minimal slippage—even in news.
Tight Spreads: Low costs (0.0-1 pip on ECN). Profits easier to keep.
Reliable Volume: Tick data consistent—perfect for volume price analysis (VPA). High volume moves show real conviction.
Predictable Behavior: Clear trends or ranges. Easier to learn...
With year end on the horizon, now perhaps is a good time to see what the Swiss franc has been up in an effort to determine what the currency is likely to be doing in the run up to the 15th January 2015 anniversary when the SNB (Swiss National Bank) removed the floor of support for the currency, unleashing a wave of volatility on the markets not seen since the dark days of the financial crisis back in 2008.
From a technical standpoint the Swiss Franc is now heavily oversold on the hourly and daily currency strength indicator, against most of its counterparts, with the exception of the where the picture is very different, with the pair firmly range bound albeit well below the 1.20 price point, which triggered the January volatility.
With regard to the other CHF pairs, and in particular the USD/CHF the current move higher that started in mid October is now reaching an exhaustion point, as the pair...
Majors Wait for the FED
Major currency pairs often pause ahead of FED decisions. Uncertainty creates consolidation. Traders wait for clues on rates or policy. This builds tension. Volatility follows the release. Volume price analysis (VPA) helps navigate the wait.
Ahead of today's release of the FOMC minutes it has been the commodity dollars that have reacted most strongly to a stronger USD, whilst eurodollar and cable have been contained to a very narrow trading range. It will be interesting to see whether these two laggards will play catch-up once the minutes hit the news wires.
USD/JPY too has been contained, with the pair cautiously approaching the 124 price point, but finding the 123.60 price level so far difficult to breach. For USD/JPY, it will be a reaction in equities that determines whether we see further upward momentum in this pair, as the market waits for clues on the FED's interest rate intentions.
Why Majors Consolidate Pre-FED
FED announcements drive USD strength. Hawkish tone (hikes)...
Understanding PMI Data: What It Is, Key Global Releases, and Why Chinese PMI Matters Most
Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data is one of the most watched economic indicators in forex and global markets. It's a leading gauge of business health. Traders use it for clues on growth, inflation, and central bank policy. Volume price analysis (VPA) confirms reactions—high volume on moves post-PMI shows conviction.
New trading month sees the usual crop of PMI releases. China has already reported today we have the numbers from Italy, Spain and France as well as the UK.
Although UK economy is predominantly services based, the manufacturing number has been managing to hold above the key 50 level. From a technical perspective so far best move for GBP has been against the AUD with cable confined to a relatively tight range. However, we should start to see some movement once the PMI number has been released, and the new week gets under way.
Interestingly cable on the daily chart...
The daily chart for gold on the MT4 platform is as bleak for gold bugs as it is in the traditional futures market. Bearish sentiment has taken hold once again driving the price lower and down towards the $1140 per ounce region, which in addition takes the metal below the 100 day ma on the daily chart.
What is perhaps most interesting at present is that this is against the context of US dollar weakness intra day where we would expect to see gold rise as a consequence.
Key levels for the precious metal include $1132 and any move through here will then open the way for a deeper move to test further support in the $1108 region. Overhead we now have deep and sustained resistance from $1180 up to $1225 per ounce and for any recovery to take place we will need to see a buying climax on sustained and rising volumes....
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