Brexit in Focus Once More for the British Pound
Brexit returns to focus for the British pound. Political or trade developments spark volatility. GBP pairs react sharply. Traders watch sentiment shifts closely. This creates opportunities in cable and crosses.
With Brexit once more in the headlines it’s the British pound which is delivering some great forex trading opportunities across the pound complex and worries concerning a no deal surface once more and drive the currency lower on the daily timeframe. But remember, when a currency is driven in this way expect to see volatility and plenty of trap moves intraday which is where the volatility indicator steps in. And the news for the pound was made worse by the release of news concerning a vaccine trial which had run into problems. So not a happy time for the pound at present!
Volume Price Analysis During Brexit News
Volume price analysis (VPA) is essential here. News drives spikes. High volume on moves shows conviction. Low volume warns of traps. Quantum currency strength indicator ranks GBP quickly. Matrix reveals relational weakness.
Practical Trading Insights
Brexit headlines often pressure GBP lower. Safe-haven flows boost USD or JPY. Watch for volume confirmation on breakouts. Pullbacks with low volume offer short entries. Anna Coulling’s VPA approach navigates event-driven noise confidently.
Brexit in focus reminds us—news moves markets, but volume reveals truth. Quantum indicators on MT5 or NinjaTrader spot GBP sentiment early. Stay disciplined for better results in pound trading.
Long-Term Effects of Brexit: Good, Bad, and the Outlook for the UK Economy and GBP
Brexit, the UK’s exit from the EU in 2020, reshaped its economy. Six years on (as of 2026), effects are clearer. Some benefits emerged. Many challenges persist. Here’s a balanced view of long-term impacts, plus a 10-year outlook (to 2036) and GBP direction.
Positive Effects
- Sovereignty and Policy Flexibility: Full control over laws, borders, and trade deals. UK signed agreements with Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and CPTPP membership. This opens non-EU markets.
- Migration Control: Points-based system reduced low-skilled EU migration. This addressed political concerns and wage pressure in some sectors.
- Regulatory Divergence: Freedom to tailor rules (e.g., fintech, AI). London remains a financial hub.
These gains are mostly non-economic or long-term—hard to quantify but valued politically.
Negative Effects
- Trade Friction: Non-tariff barriers (customs, rules of origin) reduced EU trade ~15% (OBR estimates). Services (70% of UK economy) hit hard—financial passporting lost.
- Lower Growth: Consensus (OBR, IMF, Bank of England) estimates Brexit reduced potential GDP ~4% long-term. Productivity slower due to less EU labor/capital.
- Investment and Supply Chains: Firms relocated or hesitated. Northern Ireland protocol created ongoing tension.
- Inflation Pressure: Supply disruptions contributed to 2022 spikes.
Overall, economic costs outweigh benefits per most studies.
10-Year Outlook (to 2036)
Moderate negative impact likely continues:
- Growth: UK GDP ~2-4% lower than “remain” scenario (OBR 2025 forecasts). Slower productivity, reduced trade intensity.
- Positives: New deals mature. Regulatory freedom in tech/green sectors could boost innovation.
- Risks: Geopolitics, global slowdowns, or unresolved NI issues amplify drag.
- Consensus: Steady but sub-par growth vs pre-Brexit path. No “dividend” materialized economically.
Likely Direction of the GBP
GBP weakened sharply post-referendum (from ~1.50 to 1.20 vs USD). It stabilized but remains volatile. Long-term:
- Downward Bias: Trade deficit, lower growth potential pressure sterling.
- Current (2026): Around 1.30-1.35 vs USD—supported by BoE rates but capped by structural factors.
- Next 10 Years: Likely rangebound or gradual decline vs majors. Risk-off favors GBP as semi-safe-haven. But commodity currencies outperform in growth phases.
VPA traders watch volume on GBP moves for conviction.
Brexit’s legacy is mixed. Sovereignty gains vs economic costs. Next decade: Modest drag, no dramatic rebound. GBP volatile but structurally weaker.
Trade with context—VPA reveals real moves.
By Anna Coulling