Aussie finding some bullish momentum

Of the three commodity dollars, namely the Aussie, Kiwi and Loonie it is perhaps the Aussie which finally appears to be showing signs of a potential reversal from its oversold state on the slower time frames of our currency strength indicatort (the blue line). And of the Aussie pairs it is perhaps the AUD/USD and AUD/CAD which appear the most interesting. Starting with the AUD/USD it was the failure in May to break through the resistance at 0.8160 which was the start of the its downards descent which saw the pair finally find some support at 0.6906 on the Friday before the Labor Day Holiday in the US. And whilst this level was tested once again last Monday, since then the AUD/USD has managed to claw its way back to 0.7138 at time of writing. Such positive sentiment and similar price action can also be found on the daily chart of the AUD/CAD where the test of support at 0.9149 on the...
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Eurodollar regains its bullish mojo

At last Thursday's ECB press conference it was enough for Mario Draghi to hint at further QE for the eurodollar to sell off sharply, taking the pair from a high of 1.1243 before coming to rest at the support platform at in the 1.1087/96 region. This support platform was tested again on Friday as a degree of buying for the pair stepped in ahead of the Labor Day holiday in the US and Canada. And whilst the start of this week has seen relatively muted price action for eurodollar given Monday's holiday, the tone of this action has been overall bullish with each session threatening to take the pair through and away the volume point of control in the 1.1200 price region. This has materialised in today's trading session which has seen eurodollar move from a low of 1.1171 to trade, at time of writing at 1.1278. The 1.1171 low also coincided with the `100 ma which has also added its...
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Cable finally finds some support (& buyers!)

Following longest fall since 2008 no surprise to see British pound and the 6B move higher in this morning's trading, on the back of profit taking and closure of US and Canadian markets for the Labor Day holiday. From a VPA (volume price analysis) perspective the recent move lower has also been associated with falling volume suggesting the downwards pressure is, for now, running out of steam, with the platform of support at 1.5160 providing the reason for the pullback. Longer term, however, the outlook remains bearish for Cable, and should the 1.5160 price point fall to hold we may see a move towards 1.50 and even a possible re-test of the 1.46 region in due course.  ...
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Aussie dollar continues lower

As spot forex traders we sometimes forget the futures market can often help with market sentiment towards a currency and the daily chart for 6A, which is the contract for the Aussie dollar is particularly revealing. For the 6A,  it has been a return to business as usual over the last couple of weeks, since the breakaway from the VPOC at 0.7320 once again confirming the heavily bearish sentiment for the AUD. The initial break was on the 24th August where the wide spread down candle also triggered the volatility indicator, and as expected the price action moved back within the spread of the candle; a cynical move designed to trigger stops. Since then the candle has duly been confirmed with a rapid move through the low volume node on the VPOC indicator at 0.6980 with the pair now trading lower once again at 0.6934 in the London session. With the weight of transacted volume now sitting overhead in the 0.7320 price area and...
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Pause in cable’s sharp move lower

Last Tuesday's failure by cable to take out the 1.5818 resistance resulted in a down candle on high volume, which when it was combined with the previous day's bullish candle on very high volume gave us a two bar reversal (aka a shooting star), and the first signal that cable's preceding move away from the volume point of control region was likely to fail. This view was also validated by the volume which accompanied the shooting star, and a further clear signal of weakness to come. Against this backdrop Wednesday's sharp 267 pip sell off in cable came as no surprise with the pair also moving firmly below the VPOC to close out at 1.5463 on the session. The bearish sentiment was cable continued for the remainder of the week, as the pair closed out August 1.5390. The start of the new trading week saw cable once again come under pressure, on relatively low volume, but this is easily explained as Monday was...
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Bearish sentiment continues for eurodollar

The release of slightly better than expected preliminary GDP and unemployment claims for the US did manage to add some bearish momentum to the eurodollar before it found support at 1.2525 from where it has been attempting to rally higher. It goes without saying this level needs to be taken out for the pair to continue lower. However, what is also significant on the 30 min and hourly chart is that this price point marks the low of the volatility candles which were triggered at the time of the news releases. A trigger of such a candle - in other words a candle which is outside the ATR for the instrument in question - often results in the price action simply retreating within the spread of the candle. At time of writing the pair is once again approaching the 1.1225 price point and if taken out should see the pair move to test the next level of support at 1.1213. The good...
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Bears take hold of cable

Today's reversal in cable has once again taken the pair back to the VPOC (volume point of control) support which sits in the 1.5573 price region. This price area is where cable has been rotating since early July, and despite what appeared to be a decisive break away on Monday when cable touched a high of 1.5803, yesterday's down candle has had the effect of creating a classic two bar reversal. Therefore, no surprise to see the resulting fall in today's trading session where cable has fallen over 200 pips. Today's price action has not only taken cable below the VPOC for the first time since early August but also seen a break through the 100 ma, and with today's move supported with good volume the next stop for cable would appear to be 1.5424 on the daily chart. Moving to the hourly chart cable has found some good support at 1.5466, a price point first hit by a volatility candle earlier...
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Interesting divergence in the majors

During yesterday's overall market volatility the forex market posted some very interesting and intriguing price action and candle patterns, particularly with regard to the major pairs. As a general rule of thumb whenever the market becomes agitated and adopts a 'risk off' mood traders and investors can expect a strong move into safe havens such as the US dollar and gold. However, as has been the case recently where we have seen a breakdown of correlations and traditional market relationships, the USD did not react as many would have expected. A look across the daily charts of our 7 major pairs not only reveals this divergence, but also highlights the importance of understanding volatility, particularly with respect to its affect on the ATR of an instrument. As we can see from the charts only three pairs escaped triggering a volatility candle, and these were the USD/CAD, the USD/CHF and Cable with the USD rising strongly in the first two pairs, but falling in...
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Eurodollar bears take control

Although the market is focused on tomorrow's release of the FOMC minutes, an event guaranteed to cause a degree of market volatility, it is the release of the CPI and Core CPI numbers earlier in the session which are probably even more important. Of the two releases it is the Core CPI the FED pays the most attention to, and a big influence on the likely timing of any rise in interest rates. Meantime, the USD appears to have found its mojo once again following last week's dramatic fall, with the eurodollar bearing the brunt of this resurgence. The daily chart for the eurodollar is particularly interesting where weakness for the pair started last week with the failure to break and hold above the VPOC (volume point of control) in the 1.1167 price region. Friday's close below the 100 ma appears to have been the catalyst for a pick up in bearish sentiment for eurodollar which saw the pair close yesterday's trading...
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CSI highlights GBP sell off

Ahead of the release of the Monetary Policy Minutes from the RBA, and tomorrow's CPI number for the UK, it's been interesting to see how the Aussie and British pound have been behaving in today's trading session. And of the two currencies it has been the British pound which has seen some heavy selling against both the USD and the Aussie. The hourly chart of the CSI (currency strength indicator) highlighted the extent to which the British pound was overbought, and Cable's failure to take out the resistance at 1.5688 signaled the start of a reversal in fortune for the pair and a move lower of over 100 pips.  And it has only been a combination of the VPOC at 1.5585 and support at 1.5578 that has prevented any further move lower for Cable. Moving to the GBP/AUD  here too we have seen a move lower for the British pound with the pair eventually finding support at 2.1094 from which we have...
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