Divergence in euro complex

by Quantum Trading Comment Closed
From a technical perspective last week was not an easy one for the euro with a divergence of sentiment across the complex. Against the USD it found some much needed support at the 1.0825 support level, which provided the springboard for a move up and through the VPOC on the daily chart at the key 1.09 price point. The pair managed to maintain this bullish momentum through to the end of week before finally ending the week at 1.1004 on reasonable volume. However, this move higher has, so farfailed to follow through in today's trading session with the 100 ema providing the cap. Bearish sentiment towards the euro has also increased in the futures market where shorts have added 18.1k contracts taking the total gross short position to 172.5k, the largest increase since November 2015. This week we also have the ECB interest rate decision and obligatory press conference, and given the current economic downturn in the eurozone, the market is...
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Gold continues to shine

by Quantum Trading Comment Closed
Some solid gains for gold last week as the precious metal ended last week in a bullish mood following an extended period of price consolidation within the spread of the volatility candle triggered back in early February. Cannot stress the importance of this candle, moving as it did way beyond the average true range for the metal in this time frame, it has since defined and described any further move higher. Friday's price action too is important for the longer term with substantial volume coming into gold, helping to push the metal to test the $1279 per ounce region, before falling back on profit taking ahead of the weekend. Gold has started the new trading week in a very positive move with the 200 ema on the weekly chart providing the necessary support as the precious metal attempts once again to take out the $1279 per ounce high. A move through here on strong and rising volume will see gold move to...
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Sterling bears out in force

by Quantum Trading Comment Closed
Sterling Bears Out in Force Sterling bears are out in force recently. GBP pairs sell off sharply. This reveals strong bearish sentiment. The currency strength indicator highlighted it early. Volume price analysis (VPA) confirmed the weakness. A worse-than-expected UK manufacturing production figure of -0.4% against a forecast of 0.1% (-0.4% was the figure in December) has given sterling bears a further excuse to sell the currency, with some really nice downtrends in a number of GBP pairs. In addition, industrial production also followed a similar trend coming at -0.7% against a forecast of 0%, and declining further against last month's number of 0.1%, The data injected volatility into the sterling pairs, with volatility candles triggering in the faster time frames. Cable managed to find some minor support at 1.4458, before moving lower, and what is significant is that the hourly CSI is showing GBP as likely to be moving steadily lower, and we will have to wait for the US session to see...
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Watching the euro

by Quantum Trading Comment Closed
Following last week's turbulent price action, no surprise that today the markets have been a litte muted with the added bonus the Shanghai Composite only fell 5% in overnight trading. And with Japan closed for it's annual Coming of Age Holiday even the Nikkei could take a day off! Meantime last Friday the euro was the currency to watch as it ended the trading week on a burst higher against most of its counterparts, and posting very positive candles on the daily charts. However, despite an early follow through today's trading session for the euro has been marked by some great trades to the short side, in particular against the USD, the Aussie, GBP, NZD & CAD. The euro daily matrix illustrates this perfectly with the eur/usd, eur/gbp/ & eur/aud all exhibiting similar price action. The exception had been the eur/nzd, but here too the euro appears to be moving back to test the VPOC (volume point of control) at 1.6420. Against the...
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Kiwi roaring higher on the currency strength indicator

by Quantum Trading Comment Closed
Good to see the Kiwi on a bit of tear (the white line on the currency strength indicator), but comes as no surprise given how oversold it was at the end of last week. We've been tracking the NZD/USD which has had a huge move higher overnight & broken through the VPOC on the daily chart and is now touching the 100 ma. As we mentioned in yesterday's webinar although December price action can often seem erratic, it can nonetheless offer some great trading opportunities. And those of you who come along regularly to our webinars will know David & I are great fans of both the Kiwi and Aussie! Kiwi Roaring Higher on the Currency Strength Indicator The Kiwi (NZD) is roaring higher recently. This commodity currency shows strong momentum. The currency strength indicator highlights it clearly. NZD ranks at the top against majors. Traders spot bullish opportunities in NZD pairs. CSI on Slower Timeframes The currency strength indicator works across all timeframes. On...
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NZD and USD in focus on the currency strength indicator

by Quantum Trading Comment Closed
NZD and USD in Focus on the Currency Strength Indicator Thanks to everyone for coming along to our forex webinar for the London session earlier, where our focus was the euro & eurodollar, particularly with some pretty heavy option expiry strike prices due up later today. Also in view was the kiwi which was in a similar state to the British pound ahead of Chancellor Osborne's autumn statement. In other words totally beaten down across multiple time frames, and despite various efforts to rise kept falling back into oversold territory. Interesting to see the Kiwi (white line) has now moved off the floor on the 30 & 60 min CSI. Also note the USD (the red line) is very overbought, so we need to keep an eye on what it is likely to do the remainder of the day. What happens in our next webinar for the US session is difficult to tell given it was Thanksgiving yesterday, and today is Black Friday. Appreciate it's...
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GBP in focus ahead of Autumn budget

by Quantum Trading Comment Closed
This morning's highlight comes from Chancellor George Osborne here in the UK with his Autumn Forecast Statement, so expect lots of smoke & mirrors, volatility and opportunity to shake traders out of the market.For the British pound complex on the faster time frames, it's been a case of some good moves lower against USD, JPY & euro. The hourly currency strength indicator is also highlighting the GBP as heavily oversold, but as we have said many times in our forex webinars - currencies, markets and instrument can stay stubbornly over extended much longer than we think. And as we also say in the webinars your time horizon will always be a factor in any trading decision, and also help to quantify the level of risk associated with that trade. Discover more about the currency strength indicator here....
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VIX continues to drift ever lower

by Quantum Trading Comment Closed
VIX Continues to Drift Ever Lower The VIX continues to drift ever lower. This signals calm markets. Low readings reflect investor complacency. Expected volatility in the S&P 500 stays subdued. Traders interpret this as risk-on sentiment. What Is the VIX and How Does It Work The VIX, or CBOE Volatility Index, is known as the "fear gauge". It measures implied volatility from S&P 500 options prices. Calculations look 30 days ahead. High VIX shows fear and uncertainty. Low VIX indicates confidence and stability. Volatility Indicator as a Sentiment Indicator A drifting lower VIX displays bullish market sentiment. Investors feel safe buying equities. Safe-haven currencies like yen weaken. And volume price analysis (VPA) complements this—low volatility often aligns with steady uptrends and rising volume. Trading Implications Low VIX can precede tops if complacency peaks. Watch for sudden spikes as reversals. Quantum indicators on NinjaTrader or TradingView track VIX alongside equities. Anna Coulling's VPA approach uses it for intermarket context. Monitor the VIX drift carefully. It reveals sentiment shifts early....
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Pound hammered in US forex session

by Quantum Trading Comment Closed
 Pound Hammered in US Forex Session The British pound was hammered in the US forex session. Bearish pressure intensified during overlap hours. GBP pairs sold off sharply. This reflected renewed dollar strength and risk aversion. Volume Price Analysis Insights Volume price analysis (VPA) confirmed the selling. High volume on down candles showed conviction. No buying support appeared at lows. Quantum currency strength indicator highlighted GBP weakness relative to USD. Trading Takeaways Sessions like this reward bearish bias on GBP. Watch for continuation or exhaustion. Anna Coulling's VPA approach with Quantum tools spots distribution phases early for timely shorts. US session volatility often hammers currencies. Use Quantum indicators to navigate pound moves confidently. Trading the GBP in a Strong Downtrend: How VPA Signals the Bottom with Stopping Volume The British pound (GBP) can enter strong downtrends. This happens on risk-off sentiment or UK data weakness. Pairs like GBP/USD or GBP/JPY fall sharply. Traders short with momentum. But trends end. Volume price analysis (VPA) spots the bottom early—stopping volume is...
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