Watching the euro

by Quantum Trading Comment Closed
Following last week's turbulent price action, no surprise that today the markets have been a litte muted with the added bonus the Shanghai Composite only fell 5% in overnight trading. And with Japan closed for it's annual Coming of Age Holiday even the Nikkei could take a day off! Meantime last Friday the euro was the currency to watch as it ended the trading week on a burst higher against most of its counterparts, and posting very positive candles on the daily charts. However, despite an early follow through today's trading session for the euro has been marked by some great trades to the short side, in particular against the USD, the Aussie, GBP, NZD & CAD. The euro daily matrix illustrates this perfectly with the eur/usd, eur/gbp/ & eur/aud all exhibiting similar price action. The exception had been the eur/nzd, but here too the euro appears to be moving back to test the VPOC (volume point of control) at 1.6420. Against the...
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Is Swiss Franc ready to turn higher?

by Quantum Trading Comment Closed
With year end on the horizon, now perhaps is a good time to see what the Swiss franc has been up in an effort to determine what the currency is likely to be doing in the run up to the 15th January 2015 anniversary when the SNB (Swiss National Bank) removed the floor of support for the currency, unleashing a wave of volatility on the markets not seen since the dark days of the financial crisis back in 2008. From a technical standpoint the Swiss Franc is now heavily oversold on the hourly and daily currency strength indicator, against most of its counterparts, with the exception of the where the picture is very different, with the pair firmly range bound albeit well below the 1.20 price point, which triggered the January volatility. With regard to the other CHF pairs, and in particular the USD/CHF the current move higher that started in mid October is now reaching an exhaustion point, as the pair...
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Majors wait for the FED

by Quantum Trading Comment Closed
  Majors Wait for the FED Major currency pairs often pause ahead of FED decisions. Uncertainty creates consolidation. Traders wait for clues on rates or policy. This builds tension. Volatility follows the release. Volume price analysis (VPA) helps navigate the wait. Ahead of today's release of the FOMC minutes it has been the commodity dollars that have reacted most strongly to a stronger USD, whilst eurodollar and cable have been contained to a very narrow trading range. It will be interesting to see whether these two laggards will play catch-up once the minutes hit the news wires. USD/JPY too has been contained, with the pair cautiously approaching the 124 price point, but finding the 123.60 price level so far difficult to breach. For USD/JPY, it will be a reaction in equities that determines whether we see further upward momentum in this pair, as the market waits for clues on the FED's interest rate intentions. Why Majors Consolidate Pre-FED FED announcements drive USD strength. Hawkish tone (hikes)...
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Cable waits on PMI

by Quantum Trading Comment Closed
Understanding PMI Data: What It Is, Key Global Releases, and Why Chinese PMI Matters Most Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data is one of the most watched economic indicators in forex and global markets. It's a leading gauge of business health. Traders use it for clues on growth, inflation, and central bank policy. Volume price analysis (VPA) confirms reactions—high volume on moves post-PMI shows conviction. New trading month sees the usual crop of PMI releases. China has already reported today we have the numbers from Italy, Spain and France as well as the UK. Although UK economy is predominantly services based, the manufacturing number has been managing to hold above the key 50 level. From a technical perspective so far best move for GBP has been against the AUD with cable confined to a relatively tight range. However, we should start to see some movement once the PMI number has been released, and the new week gets under way. Interestingly cable on the daily chart...
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Quantum Trading apps now available on Tradable

Quantum Trading apps now available on Tradable

by Quantum Trading Comment Closed
David and I delighted to announce the range of Quantum Trading indicators and apps are now available on Tradable, and both David and I are excited to be associated with such an innovative and dynamic company. Tradable, available on Windows or Mac OS, has a unique interface which enables traders to download and arrange third party developed apps, providing them with all the information they need in one place to make informed trading decisions – including market charts, news flashes, social trading feeds – as well as powerful execution tools. Traders can utilise a series of applications built by other traders on a similar experience level, or create their own, bespoke tools (apps) inside Tradable. Tradable is an award winning, easy to use platform, aimed at intermediate and experienced traders. For more information, visit www.tradable.com For a free trial of the new Quantum Trading tools, please visit http://quantumtrading.tradable.com/  ...
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Bearish sentiment continues for euro

by Quantum Trading Comment Closed
Despite finding support at 1.0996 following last week's mauling eurodollar is struggling to hold onto the weak overnight gains. 15 min chart for the pair is particuarly revealing with a series of volatility candles triggered as the combination of the resistance at 1.1056 and the 100ma have been taken by traders as an excuse to sell. Other euro pairs also taking a tumble include the EUR/GBP and EUR/CAD, the former sitting neatly on the VPOC on the 15 min timeframe which sits at the 0.7180 region, and any move through here could see the pair test support at 0.7168. Any move lower for the EUR/GBP cross is also benefiting from a move higher in cable.    ...
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Euro tumbles on Draghi comments

by Quantum Trading Comment Closed
Euro Tumbles on Draghi Comments The euro tumbled sharply on Draghi comments. ECB policy hints drove selling pressure. Markets reacted to dovish tone. This created strong downside momentum in EUR pairs. Mario Draghi's comments at the ECB conference regarding further stimulus has led to a dramatic fall in the euro across the board, and the eurodollar in particular. This weakness, however, was first signaled last week, and has been developing since the start of the trading week, and is a follow through from the two bar reversal posted on the daily chart. Today's price action on the eurodollar daily chart has resulted in a volatility candle being triggered given the extreme move, and if there is no follow through, then it should be surprise to see the price action simply retreat to within the spread of today's candle. In addition today's price move has seen the eurodollar move back through the volume point of control. Volume Price Analysis Insights Volume price analysis (VPA) confirmed the tumble....
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Aussie waits on RBA

by Quantum Trading Comment Closed
Aussie Waits on RBA The Aussie dollar waits on RBA decisions. Rate holds or changes drive volatility. Traders watch closely for clues on monetary policy. This often sets the tone for AUD pairs. Some really nice two way price action on the Aussie complex which started overnight on the release of Chinese data, namely GDP, the Industrial Production and the Fixed Asset Investment numbers. The hourly chart for the complex clearly shows volatility candles being triggered across the board (as denoted by the purple arrows), with the Aussie rising sharply before moving back inside the spread of the volatility candle. This momentum was also signaled on the currency strength indicator before the currency moved into a consolidation phase in the transition to the European and London sessions. Further Gains There were further gains for the Aussie in the morning session, until bullish momemtum drained away which resulted in some great trades to the short side. These were particularly evident in the AUD/USD, GBP/AUD and...
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Don’t ignore the Kiwi – it can deliver some great trades!

by Quantum Trading Comment Closed
Don’t Ignore the Kiwi – It Can Deliver Some Great Trades! The Kiwi (NZD) is often overlooked in forex trading. But it can deliver some great trades. High volatility and commodity links create sharp moves. Traders who ignore it miss opportunities. A currency often overlooked by forex traders is the New Zealand dollar, which is a great shame because this commodity dollar can often deliver some impressive and consistent trades, particularly on the slower time frames. And for a reason we only need to glance at the daily chart of the currency strength indicator. Following a sharp move lower in August towards the oversold region of the CSI, the New Zealand dollar then spent the next four weeks trying to move away from this region, before finally finding some traction towards the end of September. Since then the NZD has moved sharply higher against most of its counterparts, with a number of pairs lifting off simultaneously. Which NZD Pairs? Of the pairs which make up...
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Is AUD/USD finally preparing to reverse higher?

by Quantum Trading Comment Closed
The Aussiedollar weekly chart is another classic example of how patience can be richly rewarded following the extended congestion phase of March to August 2014 which saw the pair trade in an increasingly tighter range around the VPOC (volume point of control) in the 0.93 to 0.94 price area. This type of price action is always a signal of an explosive move once the breakaway occurs. And as we can see clearly on the chart this phase of price action came to a dramatic end with a wide spread down candle which triggered the volatility indicator (the purple arrows top and bottom), as the price action moved outside the average true range in this time frame. The Price Action The price action to the downside was duly confirmed with a close well outside the volatility candle and further confirming the inherent weakness in the pair. Since last August the trend lower has also been perfectly confirmed and defined by the dynamic price pivots...
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