We are about to enter a unique confluence of events, the like of which we have never seen before, or likely to see again and ones which could ultimately deliver not one black swan event but possibly two over the coming months and in this video we explain why. Whilst for day traders this is likely to present some wonderful trading opportunities, for longer term investors who perhaps have joined the rally late, the events of the next few weeks and months are likely to be painful and one only has to consider the VIX which continues to remain stubbornly high in the mid-20’s and showing no signs of falling as the rally continues on weakening volumes.
No one knows when the next black swan event is coming—and that’s the whole point.
A “black swan” (coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book The Black Swan) is an event that:
- Is extremely rare and unpredictable (outside normal expectations).
- Has massive, widespread consequences.
- Is often rationalized in hindsight as if it “should have been obvious.”
Classic examples:
- The 9/11 attacks (2001).
- The 2008 global financial crisis.
- The COVID-19 pandemic (2020).
By definition, black swans are impossible to forecast precisely. If we could predict them with any reliability, they’d no longer be black swans—they’d be gray swans or known risks. Taleb’s argument is that we overestimate our ability to predict rare events while underestimating their impact.
That said, some analysts watch for “fragile” conditions that could amplify a shock (e.g., high debt levels, geopolitical tensions, overvalued markets, or climate risks). But timing? Zero reliable answers.
The best “strategy” is resilience: Diversify, hold cash/safe havens, manage risk tightly, and stay adaptable. As Taleb says, don’t try to predict black swans—build systems that survive them.
If you’re worried about one in 2026, markets are always pricing in something unexpected. Stay vigilant, but don’t lose sleep over the unknowable