USD/CAD Now Testing Key VPOC Level
USD/CAD is now testing a key Volume Point of Control (VPOC) level. VPOC marks the price with highest traded volume. It acts as strong support or resistance. Price often reacts here with bounces or breaks.
Once GBP data is out of the way we can then look forward to the unemployment claims in the US and the Ivey PMI from Canada. Both items are released at the same time & here expect to see the biggest reaction in the USD/CAD. On the daily chart for the pair the resistance in the 1.2470 – 1.25 region (which also coincides with the VPOC), is putting a temporary brake on any move higher. On our daily currency strength indicator, we do appear to have more downside for the CAD, particularly against the euro, where we recently had a strong move away from the resistance in the 1.38 region.
As always the Canadian dollar will also reflect price trends for oil, and with OPEC now set on a collision course with the alternative energy suppliers in an overt price war, oil prices look set to remain low for years to come. Indeed, OPEC itself have publicly stated that oil will remain below $100 per barrel for the next decade as they flood the markets with supply to suppress the price of oil.
Volume Price Analysis Insights
Volume price analysis (VPA) shines at VPOC tests. Watch for high volume on candles touching the level. This shows conviction from institutions. Low volume suggests rejection or trap. Quantum VPOC indicator on MT5 or NinjaTrader highlights these zones clearly.
Trading Takeaways
Approach USD/CAD cautiously at VPOC. Wait for confirmation—stopping volume for reversal or breakout volume for continuation. Anna Coulling’s methodology uses VPOC for high-probability setups. Quantum tools make spotting reactions simple.
This level could decide short-term direction. Stay alert for volume clues.
Oil and Its Impact on the USD/CAD Pair
Oil is a major driver for the USD/CAD pair. Canada is a top oil exporter. Crude prices influence the Canadian dollar (CAD) directly. Strong oil boosts CAD. Weak oil pressures it lower. This creates clear opportunities in USD/CAD.
Why Oil Moves USD/CAD
Canada’s economy relies on energy exports. Rising oil prices increase revenue. This attracts investment. CAD strengthens. USD/CAD falls (bearish pair). Falling oil reduces inflows. CAD weakens. USD/CAD rises (bullish pair).
Volume price analysis (VPA) confirms reactions. High volume on CAD upmoves during oil rallies shows conviction. Low volume warns of traps.
Key Oil Reports and Their Impact
Weekly reports drive volatility:
- EIA Crude Oil Inventories (Wednesday 10:30 AM ET): Build (surplus) pressures oil/CAD lower. Draw (shortage) boosts them.
- API Weekly Report (Tuesday evening): Early clue—often moves markets pre-EIA.
- OPEC+ Meetings: Supply decisions swing prices sharply.
VPA spots real reactions—high volume post-report validates direction.
Trading USD/CAD with Oil Correlation
Monitor oil futures (/CL) alongside USD/CAD. Strong oil + high volume CAD buying = short USD/CAD. Weak oil + volume selling = long USD/CAD. The Quantum currency strength indicator ranks CAD relative to other currencies. The matrix shows oil-linked flows.
Anna Coulling’s VPA approach with Quantum tools turns correlation into disciplined trades. Watch volume for confirmation—avoid low-conviction spikes.
Oil’s impact on USD/CAD creates reliable setups. Quantum indicators make navigating it simple. Stay commodity-aware for better forex results.
Latest EIA Crude Oil Inventories Report (Week Ending January 9, 2026)
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its Weekly Petroleum Status Report today (January 14, 2026). Here’s the headline data and implications:
Key Highlights
- Crude Oil Inventories: +3.4 million barrels (to 422.4 million barrels).
- This was a bearish surprise—analysts expected a draw of ~2.2 million barrels.
- Stocks now 3% below the 5-year average.
- Gasoline Inventories: Increased (ninth straight weekly build in some reports).
- Distillate Inventories: Mixed—slight changes.
- Refinery Inputs: Averaged 16.9 million barrels/day, up slightly.
Market Reaction & Implications
- Bearish for Oil Prices: Unexpected build signals surplus supply amid steady demand. WTI crude dipped post-release, testing lower supports.
- USD/CAD Impact: Weak oil pressures commodity-linked CAD. USD/CAD edged higher.
- Broader Sentiment: Reinforces caution on energy—watch for volume confirmation on down moves.
Trading with Volume Price Analysis (VPA)
VPA helps navigate reactions. High volume on post-release down candles in oil = conviction selling. Low volume = potential trap. Quantum indicators on NinjaTrader spot these fast—Trend Monitor for direction, VPOC for levels.
Next release: January 22, 2026.
Stay volume-focused—EIA reports drive short-term volatility. Quantum tools make interpreting them reliable.
By Anna Coulling
Creator of Volume Price Analysis