Aussie Finding Some Bullish Momentum
The Aussie is finding some bullish momentum recently. AUD pairs push higher. This reflects renewed buying interest. Commodity links and risk sentiment support the move. Traders spot opportunities in AUD crosses.
Of the three commodity dollars, namely the Aussie, Kiwi and Loonie it is perhaps the Aussie which finally appears to be showing signs of a potential reversal from its oversold state on the slower time frames of our currency strength indicatort (the blue line). And of the Aussie pairs it is perhaps the AUD/USD and AUD/CAD which appear the most interesting.
Starting With AUD/USD
Starting with the AUD/USD it was the failure in May to break through the resistance at 0.8160 which was the start of the its downards descent which saw the pair finally find some support at 0.6906 on the Friday before the Labor Day Holiday in the US. And whilst this level was tested once again last Monday, since then the AUD/USD has managed to claw its way back to 0.7138 at time of writing.
Such positive sentiment and similar price action can also be found on the daily chart of the AUD/CAD where the test of support at 0.9149 on the Friday before the Labor Day holiday appears to have been trigger for the start of the move higher in the pair, with the AUD/CAD trading at 0.9461 at time of writing.
For AUD/USD the 0.7150 price point is now an important level that needs to be breached, and with the pair having moved through the VPOC on the 4 hourly chart there is no reason to suppose this cannot be achieved.
For the AUD/CAD the pair is now running into reasonably stiff resistance in the 0.9480 region although it is encouraging that on the 4 hour chart the price action is currently above the 200 ma.
Volume Price Analysis Confirmation
Volume price analysis (VPA) confirms the bullish momentum. Rising prices with increasing volume show conviction. Low volume pullbacks signal weakness in sellers. Quantum currency strength indicator ranks AUD high relative to majors.
Why Aussie Gains Momentum
Aussie strength often ties to commodities. Iron ore or growth data boosts it. Risk-on flows amplify. Quantum Trend Monitor on MT5 or NinjaTrader stays aligned for longs. Watch for continuation on volume spikes.
Trading Implications
Bullish Aussie momentum favors long positions. Pullbacks to support offer entries. Avoid counter-trend shorts without reversal volume. Anna Coulling’s VPA approach with Quantum tools helps ride the move confidently.
Aussie bullish momentum creates clear setups. Quantum indicators make spotting and trading it reliable. Stay with volume for consistent results.
Key Drivers of Commodity Prices
Commodity prices (oil, gold, copper, agricultural goods, etc.) are influenced by a complex mix of fundamentals, sentiment, and external factors. Unlike stocks, commodities are physical assets, so supply/demand imbalances drive most volatility. Here’s a breakdown of the main drivers:
1. Supply and Demand Fundamentals
- Core Driver: Prices rise on tight supply or strong demand, fall on oversupply or weak demand.
- Examples:
- Oil: OPEC production cuts tighten supply → prices up. Shale boom or demand slump → prices down.
- Gold: Mining output vs. jewelry/industrial/central bank demand.
- Agriculture: Weather (droughts/floods) affects crops like wheat or corn.
- Trading Tip: Watch inventories (e.g., EIA oil reports) and consumption data.
2. Geopolitical and Macro Events
- Wars, sanctions, or trade tensions disrupt supply chains (e.g., Russia-Ukraine impacting wheat/oil).
- Central bank policy (Fed rates) affects USD strength—most commodities are USD-priced, so strong USD pressures prices lower.
- Economic cycles: Growth boosts industrial metals (copper); recessions favor safe-havens like gold.
3. Currency Strength (Especially USD)
- Inverse relationship: Weak USD makes commodities cheaper for non-US buyers → demand up → prices rise.
- Strong USD does the opposite.
- Related: Commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD) often move with prices (e.g., CAD with oil).
4. Speculation and Investment Flows
- Hedge funds, ETFs, and CTAs amplify moves via positioning (CFTC Commitment of Traders reports show this).
- Risk sentiment: “Risk-on” favors industrial commodities; “risk-off” boosts gold.
5. Seasonal and Technical Factors
- Seasonal patterns (e.g., driving season boosts gasoline demand summer).
- Technical levels/support from volume price analysis (VPA)—high volume clusters act as magnets.
How to Trade Commodity Drivers with VPA
Volume price analysis (VPA) cuts through noise. High volume on moves confirms fundamental drivers. Low volume warns of traps. Quantum indicators on NinjaTrader or MT5 highlight phases—accumulation for longs, distribution for shorts.
Current Context (Jan 2026): Oil stable amid OPEC+ cuts, gold firm on rate cut expectations, copper mixed on China demand. Always check latest reports for shifts.
These drivers interact—monitor news, data releases, and VPA for edges. Quantum tools make spotting them reliable. Trade with the flow!
By Anna Coulling Creator of Volume Price Analysis