Learn How to Read the Economic Data and What It Reveals in the Cycle
Economic data releases drive market moves. Traders must learn to read them correctly. Data reveals where we are in the economic cycle. This guides sentiment and trading decisions. Volume price analysis (VPA) adds confirmation. Learn how to read the economic data and what it reveals in the cycle
Key Economic Indicators and Cycle Phases
The cycle has four phases: recovery, expansion, slowdown, recession. Leading indicators like PMI signal early turns. Coincident indicators (GDP, employment) show current state. Lagging indicators (unemployment rate) confirm trends.
Strong data (high PMI, low unemployment) points to expansion. Weak data signals slowdown. Central bank responses follow—rate hikes in expansion, cuts in recession.
How Data Reveals Cycle Position
Positive surprises boost risk-on sentiment. Commodity currencies (AUD, CAD) strengthen. Negative surprises favor safe-havens (JPY, CHF). Volume price analysis confirms reactions—high volume on moves shows conviction.
Trading with Data and VPA
Wait for data release. Watch initial reaction. Use VPA for confirmation—high volume validates direction. Quantum currency strength indicator ranks pairs post-news. Matrix shows relational shifts.
Anna Coulling’s VPA approach integrates data into cycles. Quantum tools on MT5 or NinjaTrader make reading releases reliable. Learn the indicators. Understand the cycle. Trade with context for better results.
Economic data is your cycle map. Read it with VPA and Quantum indicators for confident decisions. Start applying today.
Recent Economic Data Examples (as of January 11, 2026)
Here are some key recent economic indicators and releases from late 2025/early 2026, focusing on major global and US data. These are highlights from official sources and forecasts:
- US Employment Situation (December 2025 data, released early January 2026): Non-farm payrolls added +50,000 jobs (revised figures show steady but slower growth). Unemployment rate held at 4.4%.
- US GDP Growth: Q3 2025 revised estimate showed annualized growth around 4.3%, with annual 2025 growth at ~2.3%.
- Global Growth Forecasts for 2026: Projections range from 2.7% (UN) to 3.2% (Morgan Stanley), with moderate expansion expected after 2025’s ~2.8%.
- Upcoming/Recent Releases:
- New Residential Sales (US): Scheduled for January 13, 2026.
- Retail Sales (US): January 14, 2026.
- Personal Income and Outlays: Rescheduled in early 2026 due to data availability.
These reflect resilient but moderating growth, with focus on inflation cooling and labor market stability. For real-time updates, check sources like BLS, BEA, or IMF.
Inflation Data Highlights for 2026
As of January 11, 2026, inflation data for the new year is still emerging (December 2025 figures release soon). Here’s a summary of key highlights from recent reports and forecasts:
United States
- Latest Data (December 2025 Estimate): Headline CPI expected ~2.7% YoY, core around 3.0-3.3%. PCE (Fed’s preferred) similar, with modest rise from November’s mixed readings.
- 2026 Outlook: Inflation likely ticks up early due to tariffs/goods prices, averaging 2.6-3.3% before easing. Core stays above 2% target longer.
United Kingdom
- Latest Trends: Inflation held ~2.7% late 2025; firms expect 3.4% short-term.
- 2026 Forecast: Average ~2.5%, cooling toward 2% target with stable policy.
Global
- Overall Forecast: ~3.2-3.7% headline, moderating from 2025’s ~2.8-3%. Emerging markets vary (e.g., high in some like Argentina).
- Risks: Tariffs/AI investment could push higher; energy/geopolitics add uncertainty.
Inflation is easing globally but is sticky in places (services, wages). Central banks remain cautious. Watch the upcoming December CPI (US Jan 13) for fresh clues
By Anna Coulling