Classic VPA on GBP/JPY

gbpjpy2_001A classic VPA on 5 min chart of GBP/JPY on the release of NFP today. Huge down candle on light volume, before we saw a switch back higher as market absorbed poor numbers, and likelihood of a September FED hike in interest rates disappear faster than snow in July.

The trigger of the volatility indicator (purple arrows) also signaled high probability of a re-trace to within spread of the down candle. Volume simply validated this point.

Indeed FED Funds Rate now pricing in a 44% probability of a rise in rates in December which is a re-run of last year’s interest rate saga. As of yesterday FED funds showing a 30% probability of a rise in September