Fundamentals in Focus for GBP and NZD/USD in Today’s London Forex Session (January 13, 2026)
The London forex session (starting around 8 AM GMT) often sets the tone for the day with high liquidity and European data influences. Today, GBP and NZD/USD are in focus amid mixed sentiment—USD weakness from ongoing Fed scrutiny, positive NZ confidence data, and anticipation of US CPI later.
This is taken from the morning’s forex session with Anna and David of Quantum Trading. The session starts with Anna considering some of the fundamental drivers for the British pound, and of course Brexit. Over the next few months we are likely to see increasing volatility as the negotiations reach their conclusion. Whether agreement is reached or not, one thing you can be sure of is this. That each statement or announcement will send the pound sharply higher or lower across the complex.
The Pair In Focus
The New Zealand dollar was the pair in focus on the NinjaTrader platform. This brought together many of the VPA lessons on the faster timeframes. A decisive move lower is signalled across the complex on the currency array and also on the currency strength indicator. One of the key issues for all traders is managing the emotional stress created when a market pauses and reverses. In other words, from the primary into the secondary trend, before establishing the initial trend once more. Here we have a classic example as the NZD/USD develops a price waterfall before pausing and reversing higher. This is the point at which we have to determine whether this is a primary trend reversal to a bullish one. Or is this simply a secondary pause? This is where volume price analysis steps in, giving us the confidence to hold or close out if we think a position is reversing.
The Other Indicators
The other indicators then also support this decision with the currency strength indicator signalling when a currency or pair are deeply oversold or overbought. And as expected, the pair continues lower, delivering further before finally moving into the congestion phase late in the morning.
In this example, we also consider the currency array to view both sides of the complex, and finally, to the currency heatmap, where the pair is firmly rooted as the weakest of the twenty-eight currency pairs. A great example of all the aspects of volume price analysis and supported by the Quantum trading indicators for both MT5 and NinjaTrader.
Here’s a breakdown of key fundamentals:
GBP (British Pound)
- Steady but Cautious Tone: GBP/USD holds around 1.3470 early London, supported by resilient UK data but capped by BoE dovish expectations vs Fed. Recent retail sales and earnings figures (Nov average earnings ~4.7%) show consumer strength, but no major UK release today—focus on carryover and USD moves.
- Risk Factors: BoE policy divergence (potential cuts) vs Fed hold. GBP crosses (e.g., GBP/JPY) reflect risk appetite.
- London Session Insight: Early trading may consolidate. Volume price analysis (VPA) watches for high volume on breaks—confirmation needed for direction.
NZD/USD (Kiwi)
- Bullish Momentum from Confidence Surge: NZ Q4 business confidence hit highest since 2014, boosting hiring/investment intentions. This fuels NZD strength amid commodity rebound. NZD/USD drifts higher above 0.5750-0.5770, eyeing breakout.
- RBNZ Context: Little rate shift risk in H1 2026—supports NZD stability.
- London Session Insight: Early gains possible on risk-on flows. VPA looks for volume support on up moves—high conviction if sustained.
Shared USD Influence
- USD Weakness: DoJ investigation into Fed chair adds pressure. Markets eye US CPI (expected stable ~2.7% headline)—beat could strengthen USD, miss weaken further.
- Overall Sentiment: Risk-on favors NZD/GBP vs USD. No major European data today—London focuses on positioning ahead of US releases.
Trading Takeaways for London Session
- GBP/USD: Rangebound early—watch volume at 1.34-1.35 for direction.
- NZD/USD: Bullish bias—volume-confirmed breaks above 0.5785 signal strength.
- VPA Tip: High volume on moves validates sentiment. Quantum tools spot relational edges fast.
Quiet data day means sentiment-driven trading. Stay patient—volume reveals conviction. Quantum indicators help navigate London flows confidently.
Fundamentals Driving NZD/USD: Key Influences from NZD and USD Sides
NZD/USD, often called the “Kiwi,” is a popular forex pair. It combines commodity-driven NZD with reserve currency USD. Fundamentals from both sides create volatility. Traders watch for directional clues. Volume price analysis (VPA) confirms reactions with volume conviction.
NZD-Side Drivers
New Zealand’s economy relies on exports. This makes NZD sensitive:
- Commodity Prices: Dairy (milk powder) dominates. Strong Global Dairy Trade auctions boost NZD. Weak prices pressure it.
- China Demand: China buys ~30% of NZ exports. Strong Chinese growth lifts NZD. Slowdown weakens it.
- RBNZ Policy: Rate hikes attract capital—NZD up. Cuts or dovish tone weaken it.
- Risk Sentiment: Risk-on favors commodity currencies—NZD strengthens.
VPA spots conviction—high volume on NZD upmoves during positive data validates strength.
USD-Side Drivers
USD influences as the quote currency:
- Fed Policy: Hawkish (hikes) strengthens USD—NZD/USD falls. Dovish weakens USD—pair rises.
- US Data: Strong NFP, CPI, or GDP boosts USD. Weak figures pressure it lower.
- Safe-Haven Flows: Risk-off (equities drop) favors USD—NZD/USD declines.
Quantum currency strength indicator ranks both live. Matrix shows relational extremes.
How Fundamentals Interact in NZD/USD
Strong NZ commodities + weak USD = bullish NZD/USD. Weak NZ data + strong USD = bearish. VPA confirms—high volume on moves validates direction.
Anna Coulling’s VPA approach with Quantum tools turns fundamentals into disciplined trades. Quantum indicators make spotting impacts reliable.
NZD/USD fundamentals blend commodities, policy, and sentiment. VPA with Quantum delivers the edge. Trade with context and volume confirmation.
By Anna Coulling