Where next for gold, oil and other commodities as indices recover

We start by analysing the NQ Emini futures contract on the five-minute chart on TradingView. Then we move to the NinjaTrader platform to take a closer look at commodities such as gold, silver, oil, and copper.

00:21

Power outage impacts live stream start

00:21

The speaker apologizes for an unexpected power outage that disrupted their live stream. Despite having generally reliable internet, the outage occurred suddenly and was the first during a live session. They express uncertainty about how to handle the situation but hope to continue. The discussion resumes focusing on the 5-minute chart for the MNQ.

00:57

Analyzing MNQ 5-minute chart downtrend

00:57

The discussion focuses on identifying potential entry points and staging posts during a downtrend to maintain confidence in staying with the trend. The speaker references a specific candle formation that occurred just before the European market opens at 8:00 AM UK time, noting the significance of the timing as well as the volume activity around a hammer candle that suggests notable market behavior leading up to the official market open.

02:21

Volume anomalies and benchmark concept

02:21

The speaker discusses the concept of volume and price anomalies in trading, highlighting how identical candle sizes paired with unusually high volume indicate disharmony between price and volume. This anomaly acts as a red flag or pause point for traders. They explain the use of benchmarking by comparing the current price-volume relationship to typical patterns to assess market behavior. The presence of significant volume driving the price down suggests underlying buying activity, often confirmed by the appearance of classic candlestick patterns like hammer candles, which signal potential price reversals.

03:30

Hammer candle and potential reversal risks

03:30

The segment discusses a strong recovery candle in price accompanied by high volume, highlighting the potential danger of prematurely jumping in assuming a market bottom and reversal. While some V-shaped recoveries occur, the current volatile market environment means typical drivers are absent, so caution is necessary. The volume under the candle suggests a stopping volume attempting to halt the prior downtrend that started around midnight, but this initial effort is often insufficient. The speaker explains that strong momentum in trends, especially downward ones, behaves like physical momentum—requiring time to slow down rather than stopping abruptly.

05:06

Volatility candle signals and stopping volume

05:06

The segment explains the concept of a volatility candle accompanied by significant volume, indicating market effort to halt a price decline. The price is expected to revert within the range of the volatility candle, which is confirmed in this case. Increasing volume under green candles suggests a potential reversal. The speaker highlights the importance of volume benchmarking, noting that if the volume represented selling, the candle would have closed lower. A key signal is identified where the volatility candle stops the price slide, but if this level breaks lower, the signal is considered invalid.

06:48

This segment focuses on volume patterns signaling a reduction in selling pressure and the beginning of a price climb. A green candle with a lower wick indicates price support, confirmed by decreasing volume on the following candle. The speaker emphasizes the need for traders to remain calm and objectively analyze charts and volume price analysis (VPA) despite geopolitical uncertainties and market fear. The segment concludes with the speaker preparing to hand over to a colleague for further chart analysis.

07:56

Here, the speaker apologizes for a technical outage affecting the session and mentions considering alternative internet solutions like Starlink if issues persist. The speaker then passes control to a colleague named David while stopping their screen sharing and ensuring their microphone is properly activated.

08:27

Commodity analysis: gold, silver, oil, copper

08:27

The speaker introduces the market strength indicator running on a 2-minute timeframe, along with four prime commodities—gold, silver, oil, and copper—tracked on the 1-minute timeframe. They plan to analyze these commodities on slower timeframes, noting recent strong movements, particularly in gold.

08:57

The focus shifts to gold, with a comparison between its 1-minute and daily charts. The speaker references a previous analysis related to gold’s volatility and trap moves, highlighting that gold gapped up significantly this morning. They emphasize watching volume to determine if the price level will hold or revert, noting that gaps in gold often get filled.

10:05

The discussion covers market expectations amid current events, noting that assets like gold and safe haven currencies (dollar, yen, Swiss franc) have risen. However, the speaker warns that market makers often take positions opposite to the crowd, anticipating trader biases that war impacts markets negatively, which can lead to traps.

10:37

Market makers strategically trap traders holding weak positions by acting contrary to popular opinion, profiting from expected reactions to global conflicts. The speaker observes that markets have become desensitized to major geopolitical events compared to 10-15 years ago, reducing panic responses to global wars or conflicts.

11:17

Market maker traps in gold price moves

11:17

The speaker advises traders to think like market makers rather than typical traders, highlighting how market makers often trap traders into weak positions. Using the daily chart for gold, a large, volatile candle is analyzed, showing many traders going short expecting a trend end after gold’s long rise from $1,000. However, the volume associated with this price move is unusually low, indicating that the price action does not align with typical volume expectations.

12:22

The concept of volume price analysis (VPA) is explained as a method for benchmarking price movement against volume to determine if price action is supported or anomalous. In the case of gold, the large price drop is not backed by corresponding volume, suggesting it is a trap move orchestrated by market makers and big operators. This manipulation is designed to mislead traders into taking losing positions before the market reverses.

13:23

The speaker emphasises that many traders are likely trapped after shorting, losing money as the market reverses. VPA provides insight into the intentions of market makers and insiders, revealing whether they are genuinely participating or creating traps. This analysis offers traders an edge by showing what big players are doing and indicating potential future market directions.

14:18

Attention is drawn to a specific volatility candle, referred to as the ‘master candle,’ with its top near 5,500. A confident break above this level accompanied by rising volume could signal further upward trend development for gold. Although high price targets like $7,000 are mentioned as longer-term possibilities, caution is advised due to the likelihood of market makers closing price gaps to trap longs before pushing prices higher. Similar patterns are expected in silver, and a weekly chart perspective for gold is also introduced to provide a slower timeframe view.

15:14

Weekly gold chart shows trend continuation

15:14

The speaker explains the use of volatility indicators and the observation of price movements in the market. They describe a typical trap move with a reversal to the downside, followed by either sideways movement or a continuation of the trend. A steady upward price movement with increasing volume is analyzed, showing that despite high volume, the market paused but did not drop significantly. This suggests that major market players are buying and preventing a trend reversal, indicating a continuation upward.

16:36

The discussion shifts to shorter time frames, aligning multiple charts to the same workspace, including silver and oil. Oil is highlighted as having a strong upward trend but also experiencing a trap move with wide volatility and insufficient volume to sustain the move, leading to a reversal that traps short traders. Increasing volume under the volatility-triggered candle suggests a possible sideways movement or reversal soon. The speaker also notes the setup allows tracking multiple commodities simultaneously, enhancing market analysis.

17:37

Volatility indicator triggers and usage tips

17:37

The speaker explains an indicator used to analyse commodities, stocks, and indices by identifying overbought or oversold conditions and the strength of trends. The indicator works similarly to a currency strength indicator, helping traders spot strong trends or anticipate early trend reversals by watching for tops and bottoms.

18:33

The focus is on recognising either a congestion phase or a full-blown market reversal, with emphasis on volume confirming the move’s legitimacy. The indicator triggers in real-time, especially useful on slower timeframes like 5 or 15 minutes, firing once the price action moves outside the average true range before the candle closes.

19:30

The speaker outlines a simple trading rule: wait for price to clear the ultimate high or low of a candle to confirm the market has absorbed volatility. This signals a return to normal trading conditions and a safe opportunity to enter or exit trades. The volatility indicator is available on multiple platforms like Trade Station, Trading View, Ninja Trader, MT4, and MT5.

20:31

Priced around $79, the volatility indicator is highly effective at helping traders manage fear of volatility by providing instant visual signals across all timeframes. Signals on slower timeframes carry more significance. The speaker notes a recent strong and straightforward trend in oil trading during the morning session, with potential developments expected in the afternoon.

21:27

Support/resistance from accumulation/distribution

21:27

The speaker discusses analysing risk using three market indices (YM, NQ, ES) displayed on one-minute and three-minute charts. The focus is on the accumulation and distribution indicator, which automatically highlights support and resistance levels through the thickness of lines—thicker lines indicate stronger levels. A strong resistance level on the ES three-minute chart is noted, which will likely cause price struggle if tested repeatedly, with the level strengthening each time it holds, similar to how Popeye’s muscles grow when he eats spinach. This real-time indicator eliminates the need to manually draw support and resistance lines. The speaker briefly reviews the ENQ and ES one-minute charts, noting they exhibit similar patterns, and introduces a volume price analysis (VPA) concept, focusing on volume and price agreement or disagreement as a key to understanding price movements.

24:13

Volume-price disagreement signals trend weakness

24:13

The speaker explains a price and volume pattern where a candle shows three times the volume but only two-thirds of the price movement, signaling weakness in the trend. This discrepancy suggests the trend will not continue strongly and serves as an early warning of a potential reversal.

24:46

The market makers and large operators are exerting significant effort to move the market, but the price remains stagnant. This indicates a struggle behind the scenes where despite heavy volume, the price fails to rise as expected, highlighting a divergence between effort and price movement.

25:15

This segment introduces Wolfe’s Third Law, emphasizing the disagreement between volume and price as a clear anomaly. The speaker describes waiting for confirmation of this anomaly through a reaction candle, which shows an attempted rally followed by a roll over and decline, marking the start of a downward move without dramatic price drops.

25:47

The discussion moves to a broader market context, noting prolonged congestion since October and a cautious approach favoring cash. The speaker highlights this as a basic example of Volume Price Analysis (VPA) in action and urges patience as the market’s next moves unfold.

26:22

Market congestion and cautious trading approach

26:22

The market is currently in a congestion phase characterized by indecisive price action, including a long-legged doji pattern. A key support level must hold to avoid a breakdown and a potential serious bearish trend. Despite negative news and a major conflict causing market fear, the market is holding up and not collapsing. Market makers often act contrary to prevailing bearish sentiment to trap traders. Market reactions are complex and not always straightforward; good or bad news can move prices unpredictably depending on expectations relative to the actual news. The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding these nuances rather than assuming simple cause and effect in market movements.

28:18

VWAP indicator variants and trading application

28:18

The speaker explains the VWAP indicator on the MQ platform, showing its availability across multiple timeframes from 15 seconds to 5 minutes. VWAP is described as a multi-tool indicator consisting of five variants in one: the moving VWAP (MVWAP), anchored VWAP, time VWAP, and intraday VWAP. Each variant offers different ways to calculate and display volume-weighted averages, allowing customization such as anchoring to significant highs or lows on the chart. The VWAP includes a center line and outer envelopes that provide clues about overbought or oversold conditions, used alongside volume price analysis to identify turning points. The envelopes can be adjusted for standard deviation levels. This comprehensive VWAP tool is available on multiple platforms including TradingView, NinjaTrader, MT4, and MT5, but not on TradeStation. The session ends with a note about a current 20% promotion on educational products.

31:11

Promotions and session closing remarks

31:11

The speaker explains discount options for the stock or forex programs and offers a 20% discount on indicators if customers email with the code ‘LS 20%’. They mention the possibility of bundled deals or discounts on the full package of indicators. The session concludes with thanks to the viewers and a note that the next session will likely be on Wednesday.